A five-point jump in Labor’s support in just three days surprised most of the entrants in our first Crikey Newspoll tipping contest. 

The consensus forecast was for the two-party-preferred split of Coalition 45% and Labor 55% that the pollster found in his survey taken between 21 and 24 May, not the 60% to 40% found between 25 and 27 May.

 The good thing, perhaps, is that we will all learn the importance of the standard deviation in this polling business!

The Crikey team did do much better when it came to assessing the popularity of the two leaders and the answer to the question about the better prime minister. The forecast for Howard was spot on, as can be seen from the following table:

 

Primary Vote

Newspoll
(Actual)

Crikey
(Forecast)

Liberal

32

34

National

3

4

Labor

52

49

Greens

3

5

Other

10

8

 

Two-party preferred

Newspoll

Crikey

Coalition

40

45

Labor

60

55

 

Howard approval/disapproval

Newspoll

Crikey

Approve

44

44

Disapprove

47

47

Undecided

9

9

 

Rudd approval/disapproval

Newspoll

Crikey

Approve

64

66

Disapprove

17

16

Undecided

19

18

 

Best PM

Newspoll

Crikey

Howard

38

38

Rudd

47

48

Undecided

15

14

And our first winner is Monty Mandelburgh, who will receive a dozen bottles of wine for his great effort in being the first Crikey Newspoll winner.

The second contest is now open for entries. Click here to enter or go to www.glug.com.au and follow the links to the entry form.