The stark reality that the equine flu outbreak may have serious long term ramifications for the Australian racing industry is finally being realised by the industry’s stakeholders.

The short term financial hardship is widespread – from breeders, owners, trainers, jockeys and race day staff, through to the workers in pubs and clubs – but the long term damage to the racing and breeding industries will be incalculable if equine flu is not totally eradicated.

Already the Sydney Spring Racing Carnival is in real doubt – and will be just about finished if tests confirm a race horse at the Anthony Cummings Randwick stable becomes the first race horse to test positive to equine flu. These tests are due later this morning.

If that happens Randwick race course – and the hundreds of horses stabled at Randwick – will be quarantined for 28 days.

That will end the Spring Carnival in Sydney – and prevent any Sydney horses travelling to Melbourne for the Spring Racing Carnival, including the Melbourne Cup.

There are now doubts about the massive overseas contingent nominated for the Melbourne Carnival arriving. Already last year’s winner and runner up from Japan are out because of the flu virus in Japan.

The Melbourne Carnival will resume this weekend with a mammoth 12 race card at Caulfield. But country racing in Victoria will remain heavily restricted for the time being.

And if the flu virus is found in Victoria in the coming weeks, the whole carnival, including the Melbourne Cup, will be at risk.

The longer term ramifications come into play if the disease is not totally eliminated – and that must surely be hard to do given it has been found almost exclusively in recreational horses at a large number of sites in NSW and Queensland. It will take a miracle, and total compliance with the tough quarantine rules from ever single horse owner, including the owners of ponies in back paddocks – to eradicate the flu completely.

Sydney racing has been in enough turmoil as it is without this body blow. Thousands of workers will have to be stood down, and race day and other casual employees won’t be getting any work for weeks, possibly months.

But the biggest long term ramification might be in a permanent downturn in betting on horse and harness racing. If that happens, the industry will take years to recover – as prizemoney is totally dependent on TAB and oncourse turnover.

If punters take their money elsewhere – such as gaming machines – then the economic fortunes of what is widely regarded as the fourth or fifth largest employer in Australia will be massive.

And the impact on the multi-million dollar – and growing – breeding sector will be as serious.

The industry will be seeking compensation – especially if the flu outbreak can be traced to flaws in the quarantine system.

But the reality is the Australian racing industry faces its greatest ever crisis. And it does so at a time when many race clubs are struggling financially as it is, and owners and trainers, especially in provincial centres, are actually struggling to survive.