The polls keep showing Labor a long way in front and if you believe that nothing is going to change public opinion between now and election day there is a wonderful opportunity to make a dollar.

The bookmakers, you see, are telling a rather different story to the pollsters with the consensus of the betting market being that Labor would win seven out of every 10 elections from a position like the one they are in now. The polls point to something closer to a Labor win more than nine times out of 10.

So there you go. Pay your money and take your choice from the Crikey prices guide below showing the returns for $1 invested with the betting exchange Betfair and the five leading internet bookmakers.

Betfair Sportingbet Centrebet Portlandbet IAS Sportsbet
Labor 1.40 1.40 1.38 1.37 1.38 1.37
Coalition 3.14 2.90 3.05 3.05 3.00 3.05

(Note – to make the comparison a fair one I have deducted the 5% which Betfair takes from most winnings.)

You can get an idea of the betting trend this year from the chart showing fluctuations in Labor’s price since the start of the year.

While Labor is favoured to win the election, John Howard has returned to favourite to hold his own seat against the challenge from Labor’s Maxine McKew.

Betfair Sportingbet Centrebet, Portlandbet IAS Sportsbet
Labor 2.34 2.20 2.20 2.05 2.15 2.10
Coalition 1.71 1.60 1.90 1.65 1.62 1.70
Other 160.00 21.00 101.00 101.00 26.00 51.00

When it comes to choosing an election date the bookies think the options are down to three and I somewhat smugly note that 17 and 24 November and 1 December are the same three dates which I posted in Crikey as favourites back in May.

According to Sportingbet this morning the market is:

November 17th 3.50
November 24th 1.53
December 1st 2.70
December 8th 7.50
December 15th 15.00
December 22nd 201.00
December 29th 101.00
Any Saturday during January or beyond 34.00