Was it just a coincidence that so soon after the World Rugby Cup favourite was defeated at Le Stade de France, the sports loving John Howard advised the Governor-General to hold an election on 24 November?

The poll favourite had stumbled badly over the death penalty, and this may have encouraged the PM, who seemed newly energised at Sunday’s press conference. At his, Rudd seemed on “auto pilot,” giving the same answers we’ve heard before. After Howard appeared live on Ten’s 5 o’clock news, the presenter announced that Rudd was not unavailable for a similar interview. Some poor soul will be blamed and counselled over missing this key opportunity, many viewers would not have known of the election until then.

Both appeared on Seven and then Nine’s 60 Minutes, but again whatever the question, Rudd’s answers came from the same limited “auto pilot” menu. And incidentally, Liam Bartlett’s was by far the most penetrating TV interview of Rudd to date. Bartlett was professional, raising issues outside of the standard gallery template.

It wasn’t just that the death penalty issue was handled petulantly, Rudd blaming his office and his shadow minister for stating the party line. Nor was it that Labor policy on this is outrages traditional Labor supporters who want the Bali terrorists executed. These “Howard battlers” wouldn’t have been impressed had they known was Labor who signed the UN protocol. And while both the UN and the Catholic Church concede that the death penalty might have to be reintroduced in wartime, Labor seriously mishandled ratification by not taking the precaution to reserve the right to do this back in 1991 – something which can’t be done now.

What all this exposed was the central contradiction in the Rudd candidature. If he wins, it will only be because he has successfully persuaded the battlers that he is a younger version of John Howard, with a Howard- like aspirational vision and agenda. But this just does not reflect the values of most of the all powerful Labor caucus, and this is not a presidential election.

Until they’re in government, the Labor politicians will bite their tongues. After the election, the Caucus will take back (if they ever lost it) the power to decide who’s in the cabinet. Then they can be expected to replace the Howard agenda with their own. Unless of course, they have all experienced a Damascene conversion. The Coalition will aim to expose this contradiction. Rudd is already trying to head this off by warning of “the mother of all smear campaigns.”

That won’t stop this from becoming if not the central issue, a major issue in the campaign.