Coalition support in the Senate rose two points during November to 35.5%, according to polling by Roy Morgan Research. The Labor vote dropped two points to 44.5% in the same period. Morgan finds supports for the Greens is 9% (down 0.5%), for the Australian Democrats 3.5% (up 1%), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged), and other parties and independent candidates 4.5% (down 0.5%).
Support for Pauline Hanson in Queensland has gone backwards, with the former One Nation leader only polling 5.5% of the Queensland vote during October, down two points from September.
The state by state results break down like this:
New South Wales: ALP 47.5% (down 2.5% since September), Coalition 34.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 8.5% (down 0.5%), Democrats 2.5% (unchanged), CDP 2% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%), Other 2.5% (unchanged). If a half Senate election were to be held now, this would most likely result in three NSW ALP Senators, two Coalition Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator or another Coalition Senator).
Victoria: ALP 45% (down 3%), Coalition 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10.5% (unchanged), Democrats 3.5% (up 1.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), Other 2.5% (down 1%). This would most likely result in three Victorian ALP Senators, two Coalition Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator or another Coalition Senator).
Queensland: ALP 40% (down 0.5%), Liberal 32.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 6.5% (up 0.5%), Pauline Hanson 5.5% (down 2%), Democrats 5.5% (up 1%), Nationals 4.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%), Other 2.5% (down 1%). This would most likely result in three Queensland ALP Senators, two Liberal Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably another Liberal Senator, or a Senator from the National Party, Greens, or Democrats).
South Australia: ALP 45.5% (down 0.5%), Coalition 32.5% (down 1%), Greens 6% (down 1%), Democrats 4% (up 1%), Family First 4% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1.5% (up 0.5%), Other 6.5% (up 1.5%). This would most likely result in three South Australian ALP Senators, two Coalition Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably another Liberal Senator, or a Senator from the Greens, or independent Nick Xenophon).
Western Australia: Liberal 42% (unchanged), ALP 39% (up 2%), Greens 10.5% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Nationals 1.5% (unchanged), Democrats 1.5% (down 1.5%), CDP 1% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%), Other 2% (down 1%). This would most likely result in three Western Australian Liberal Senators, two ALP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator or another ALP Senator).
Tasmania: ALP 45.5% (up 0.5%), Liberal 30.5% (up 0.5%), Greens 20.5% (up 3%), Family First 1% (down 1.5%), Other 2.5% (down 2%). This would most likely result in three Tasmanian ALP Senators, two Liberal Senators, and one Greens Senator.
ACT: ALP 48% (unchanged), Coalition 24.5% (down 3%), Greens 20% (up 4.5%), Democrats 5% (unchanged), Other 2.5% (unchanged). This would most likely result in one ACT ALP Senator, and either a Coalition or Greens Senator.
These are the main findings of the latest Morgan Senate Poll, conducted face to face in all electorates throughout Australia with 1,307 electors in New South Wales during October 2007(of all NSW electors surveyed, 7.7% were undecided on Senate voting intention); 759 electors in Victoria during October 2007 ( 8.9% undecided); 823 electors in Queensland during October 2007(11% undecided); 618 electors in South Australia during September and October 2007 (10.1% undecided); 540 electors in Western Australia during September and October 2007(10.5% undecided); 291 electors in Tasmania during September and October 2007 (11% undecided); 339 electors in the ACT during June-October 2007(8.1% undecided).
Crikey is committed to hosting lively discussions. Help us keep the conversation useful, interesting and welcoming. We aim to publish comments quickly in the interest of promoting robust conversation, but we’re a small team and we deploy filters to protect against legal risk. Occasionally your comment may be held up while we review, but we’re working as fast as we can to keep the conversation rolling.
The Crikey comment section is members-only content. Please subscribe to leave a comment.
The Crikey comment section is members-only content. Please login to leave a comment.