There is a lot of nervousness around many US investment banks in the run-up to the only reason anyone puts up with the hours, the pressure, the compliance and a lack of time with your family – bonus time.

One of the great Wall Street myths says salaries are exorbitantly high. They are not. It’s the bonus that hopefully is. The problem for Wall Street at the moment is that too many late twenty-somethings have got too cutesy with a whole lot of products that no-one really understood.

Management simply turned a blind eye to the risks. The twenty-somethings were making profits that enabled management to upgrade their house in the Hamptons, do a fundraiser for Obama and keep the two ex-wives off their back.

Look at the results. The CEO of Merrill Lynch, gone. The CEO of Citi, gone. A UK bank bailed out by the taxpayers. The words sub-prime have replaced George Bush as the reason behind everything that goes wrong in the world.

Unfortunately for some at Wall Street investment banks, this bonus season will not be good. Their managers are always looking for a justification to cut back bonuses and ongoing credit market turbulence will deliver them the reason. Citi cut 17,000 jobs in April and the rumour is there could be another 45,000 to go. Bear Stearns fired a whole lot of traders last month and are now cutting into their IT staff. Given Merrill Lynch has had a debacle of a year and have a new CEO; watch out for more job cut news.

If you work at an investment bank and you are going to get fired there are three rules. 1) Hang on until after your bonus; 2) Convince another bank you are truly a superstar and organise a sign on bonus and a bonus guarantee with them before you get fired; 3) Get made redundant in the first round. Banks tend to be a lot more generous in the first round of job cuts than the seventh.

Happy Christmas.