Towards the end of the first week of the UNFCCC meeting, doors suddenly closed. Meetings that were previously open to all and sundry could only be accessed by country delegations. The reason? Negotiations over text – the nitty-gritty of any United Nations convention were beginning. The result is the draft that was released to the media today.

This week, however, is when the Conference will heat up. There will be a rousing reception for Kevin Rudd. Supporters of Kyoto will be under the impression that the cheers will place greater pressure on the US as the only industrialised country that has not ratified the Protocol. Truth be told, it will not make much difference. Despite China’s status as a non-industrialised country, it is the only economy comparable to the US, and the US will not go anywhere without China.

China’s position is also indicative of the Asian region as a whole. The UNFCCC is heavily Euro-centric; climate change is a developed-world concern. Asia figures little in the headlines, nor is it reported heavily in Asian media. But any new negotiating instrument is worthless without participation from China and the neighbouring economies buoyed by its growth.

The new document has asked for a commitment from developing countries, but these countries must now assess their economic future. Specifically, will they sacrifice economic growth to satisfy European expectations?

The EU’s long-term goal is 60% cuts by 2050. The Stern Report estimated this would reduce world GDP by approximately 1%. In Europe, this may not seem like much. But according to APEC research, the impact on Asian nations would be great. For example, China’s GDP would be reduced by at least 15% and the GDP of ASEAN by about 12%. Most economists also consider the Stern Report has underestimated the real cost.

China and its neighbours need growth strategies to eliminate poverty; there are approximately 100 million people in the region living on less than a dollar a day. Most of these economies are only just recovering from the Asian Financial crisis of 1997.

What does this mean for the new agreement? China and other developing countries will continue to increase their emissions. By 2030 China will be the world’s biggest emitter. This will appall the Europeans and green groups, who were hoping for a global compact to cut emissions within the next decade.

But until the developed world fully appreciates the extent to which poverty reduction depends upon energy consumption, don’t expect much more than continued negotiations.