The opening statement of Garnaut’s Review (Supplementary Draft Report, 5.9.08) states:
“There are moments in the history of humanity when fateful choices are made. The decision over the next few years on whether to take strong action to mitigate human-induced climate change is one such moment.”
This stands in stark contrast to the Review’s recommendation “The only option for Australia at this time is to pursue global agreement to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 ppm.” A 10% cut relative to 2000 in Australian carbon emissions by 2020 is recommended as “First Best conditional offer”.
Atmospheric CO2 levels about 550 ppm are well above the level at which the polar ice sheets formed, estimated as 450 ppm by leading US climate and paleo-climate scientists.
These authors state:
Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 425±75 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.
The Garnaut Review has generally accepted the scientific judgments of the IPCC, “on a balance of probabilities”, as a reasonable source of scientific knowledge on climate change. The IPCC 2007 4th Assessment report essentially assumes linear climate trajectories and equilibrium climate sensitivity, albeit with proviso “Feedbacks can amplify or dampen the response to a given forcing.”
However, the magnitude of feedback effects as triggers of climate tipping points has been underestimated in the IPCC reports and the Garnaut Review.
New studies of the recent history of Earth indicate feedback mechanisms, including ice sheet melt, loss of ice albedo, warm water effects on ice melting, carbon cycle feedbacks and methane release, act as major forcing for climate tipping points and extreme atmospheric events, occurring over short periods of several decades to several years (e.g. Steffensen et al., Science Express, 19 June 2008; Kobashi et al., 2008, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 268, 397–407).
The fast disappearance of Arctic Sea ice (23% spring melt reduction in 2006-2007), heralding an opening of open water ocean and a new climate regime for the northern hemisphere, and mid-winter break-up of the West Antarctic Wilkins ice shelf, suggest the IPCC’s and Garnaut’s time tables are superseded by the pace of climate change.
For a government elected on the promise of effective measures of climate mitigation, even global leadership in emission control and clean energy technologies, Kevin Rudd’s recent statements “there is always going to be argy-bargy in the political debate” and “my experience is not all scientists agree and you can have people who have different views”, sounds like a familiar echo of a previous Prime Minister’s statements.
It seems like a lot of Australians who surely know better are perpetuating the myth that whatever Australia does is small in the global scheme of things. The biggest contributor to CO2 emissions is coal and Australia is one of the worlds largest sources of coal. We are right up there with China and the USA and we are not even acknowledging that our decisions about coal production are even relevant to this issue. On a nation basis we are right up there. With Australians taking responsibility for the coal we export we would have to be, in per capita terms, the biggest contributors to global emissions in the world. Yet any policies that inhibit coal production are simply not on the table for discussion – whilst quietly our gov’ts, state and federal are proactive in seeing major expansion in coal mining and export continue.
Even if we continue to keep up the pretence that it’s not us and what we do won’t make much difference, the rest of the world is unlikely to be wearing the same blinkers. Australia will be lucky, should they ever get serious about it, not to face the derision, scorn and sanctions of a world that sees clearly that Australia is major part of the problem.
Ultimately I despair of the world really getting a grip on this. It’s not enough for renewables to be on a par cost wise with current or ETS boosted coal prices; until and unless clean energy is the low cost logical choice, better and cheaper than coal at any price the industry will go on. Let’s be quite clear about this – we need to see the coal industy collapse. And currently that’s close to being unspeakable in Australian politics.
Political history folks – green movement has been used by the ALP FOR DECADES to wedge the Libs and Nats. The greenies concerns even when right are not the motivations of the ALP in traditional form – though I think we may be about to see a break out in NSW under Rees and Tebbutt that maybe they do a bit being young enough generation to be scared. Maybe. In traditional form the ALP want the power and after getting over that line it’s backsliding as a general rule.
One must manage one’s expectations based on experience. Rudd is a jellyback on greenhouse, no fear of that. Garnaut can hardly go too far beyond his political economy remit. And anyway he’s spent most of his professional career in the growth fetish economy so it’s amaazing he’s gone this far – and credit to him for that.
But the fact is Rudd’s ALP (not least trogs like Emerson) don’t really feel and believe it. The prime exemplar is Bob Carr on forest protection in the tight March 1995 election. Carr only ever promised to protect 50% of the at risk wilderness forests, doing his best to fudge the detail, and then under duress agreed to ‘close the Eden Chipmill if practical’. That’s what got him over the line in 3 marginals with the weight of the greens and nascent Green Party. Carr then instituted the real plan namely 20 year logging guarrantees to the woodchippers now at record levels of tonnage.
For NSW woodchipping of natural forests read carbon/ghg emissions and free permits to noisy corporates in business as usual political economy. For the ALP regarding green issues up until now its always been about redefining how they got the election victory … at least until the first southern cyclone hits a major population centre anyway, maybe Brisbane … then it’s anyone’s guess. Even the hard heads in the ALP will crack probably too late.