So the killing in Gaza ends as it began, to a timetable determined less by events in the region than the rhythms of the US electoral cycle.
The latest round of carnage began, of course, back in November when Israel breached the ceasefire with Hamas on the day that Americans went to the polls, judging (correctly, as it happened) that, with the world’s media focused on the US, a few Palestinian deaths would slide neatly down the memory hole.
Operation Cast Lead duly took place during the final weeks of George Bush’s term, a period in which both the outgoing and incoming presidents could deftly avoid any responsibility. No-one was listening to W any more; Obama was yet to take the reigns.
Thus the ceasefire. The SMH explains: “By halting the offensive, Israel has spared Barack Obama the spectre of a Middle East bloodbath to mark his inauguration and avoided friction with the new US administration.”
Warmongers, take note. You can kill 1206 Palestinians, a third of them children. You bomb mosques and shell schools and cover UNRWA refugee shelters with white phosphorus. But what you can’t do is lower the tone of an official function. Why, this inauguration’s about hope, don’t you know!
Well, there’s precious little of that in Gaza now. In a territory already so impoverished that, even before the offensive, Palestinians suffered from malnutrition, eighty per cent of Gaza’s national product has been destroyed. The total damage bill is said to come to $1.5 billion. Some 20,000 buildings have been hit, fifteen per cent of the total structures on the strip. About 26,000 Palestinians have become internal refugees; the unemployment rate now exceeds 60 per cent.
Insofar as the international community pays attention to Gaza over the next few days, it will be to nod wisely over the need to close the border tunnels to Egypt. The smuggling routes might have supplied Hamas with rockets but they also gave Gazans access to food and medicine and the other supplies of which the Israeli blockade deprived them. Israeli intelligence says that the Palestinians will have the tunnels open within a few months. Of course they will. With the blockade continuing, what else can they do?
That’s why the most likely prognosis is for a brief lull — and then more of the same.
Though the Israeli politicians most closely associated with the war have received a boost in the polls, the residents of Sderot feel cheated by the cease fire and the Israeli far-right will agitate to avoid the “mistakes” of Lebanon and to finish the job.
On the Palestinian side, Hamas, simply by surviving, can claim some sort of victory, especially since it retains the ability to fire rockets.
Nonetheless, the Gaza crisis has also widened the schisms within Palestinian politics, and with Fatah now actively collaborating with the IDF, a Palestinian civil war seems more likely than ever.
In that light, it’s worth revisiting David Rose’s remarkable article from Vanity Fair last year, a piece that revealed the US’s covert operation to arm and train Fatah militants to overthrow Hamas after the Palestinian Authority’s first democratic elections.
Rose’s research illustrates, once again, that the USA is not an onlooker in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians so much as a central player. After all, almost all the weapons by which Gaza has been reduced to rubble came, one way or another, from the USA, the source of some $53 billion in military aid to Israel over recent decades.
That’s why, amidst the glitter of Obama’s inauguration, the Palestinians remain, as always, the skeletons at the feast. The crisis in Gaza is not over. In many ways, it’s just beginning.
Send me the poster via Moriah College Principal’s office Kevboy.
By the way what is your friend’s name?
You truly repugnant excuse for a man
Lucky Bernard Keane!
You missed the past 2 weeks of unrestrained ‘Kevboy’ insanity filled with psychic affliction and repugnant ideas.
This has been but a soupçon!
Do not dispose of your travel sickness medication as it will still be useful when reading Crikey…..
Bernard Keane:
Well Bern……lost for words?…….or did you sober up…or were you directed by Crikey management not to further embarass yourself.? I’m tipping both of those……
Finally, you must be chuffed to have gained the support of LittleJimmyKoward…….next time you holiday, I’d suggest just a little less sun…..
Bernard: you’re obviously avoiding my question…….let me put my view another way, so that you’re able to grasp it more clearly.
If the New Zealand armed forces were bombing Sydney & killing innocent civilians including young children, you wouldn’t support a retaliatory bombing of Auckland as a preventative measure……..what would you recommend that Australia do in those circumstances?
C’mon Bern…you’re big on the grand accusation but so far short on the rationale
I concur with most here. I wonder the Obama regime possibly creating some no war space, maybe, given his speech against Iraq in 2002 when it mattered. Plus the fact he can crunch Hilary if he really wants/has to, just as Olmert reportedly crunched Cond Rice via hands off W Bush UN vote.
What I want to address is Koutsoukis p1 smh story corroborating your timeline in a general way. That the strangulation of Gaza was in from June 19 says Oz UN man in Jerusalem. UK Guardian confirms Nov 4 strike killing 6 Hamas members. Didn’t realise this was voting day in USA. God have mercy.
Add in our ‘friend’ JamesK here on crikey spilling the beans on 4 months strong discipline by Hamas little or no rocket fire or mortars July, August, Sept, October. Add in Al Jazeera point that the derisory low rocket/mortar fire in this time possibly was other splinters like Islamic Jihad not Hamas. Then as you say the US presidential cycle overlay. It’s looking like a very very grim dog whistle in the Feb 2009 Israel vote, Arab parties banned, window in W’s last weeks.
Which bring us all the way home to the Jewish Board of Deputies funding Paul Sheehan exposed by Marg Simons. Paul, and I speak gently inversely proportional to the professional danger to him, says today yes the JBD funded him (tick to Marg Simons/crikey) but it was in effect ‘only in November before well before the Gaza offensive’.
But the timetable suggests the war machine was already turning over. Paul was drawn in via financially conflicted travel freebie at the threshhold of the war, after maybe 5 months of preparations, including arguably 2 instances of IDF ceasefire breach, one constructively via maintaining the blockade 4 months, two by the strike on Nov 4 killing 6. Paul appears either a dupe or propagandist – neither flattering. We asked Tim Dick the opinion editor by phone in the last hour as a follow up to previously ‘Will you sack him for not declaring a financial conflict IN THE MIDDLE of the slaughter?