The departure of Geoff Dixon from Qantas certainly left an impression on British Airways and on its eternally ambitious CEO, Willie Walsh, as did the Australian media.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Walsh seems to not much like the latter, and looks like he misses the unlamented Dixon.
In the still standard blinkered British Airways management fashion, Walsh says his plans to take over Qantas came a cropper when “there was a change in management”.
That happened late last year and Qantas left the BA transit room in December and went back to being run by managers interested in making a quid and not a deal (remember how Dixon warmly embraced the failed private equity takeover from TPG, Macquarie and its mates?).
That was when Dixon departed, leaving Alan Joyce in charge, plus a newish looking board headed by Leigh Clifford, who isn’t as wobbly in the presence of Dixon as his predecessor, Margaret Jackson, seems to have been.
And then there was the media and the political reaction.
“So we actually learnt a lot by going through the process with Qantas,” Walsh told the FT.
“I think the discussions we had with Qantas were interesting.
“They probably could have gone a bit further if it wasn’t for the fact that there was a change in management and various other things, but we’ve not had any discussions; we’re not intending to have any discussions with Qantas.
Walsh said there are no plans to pursue a tie-up at present, and the “quite negative” political reaction in Australia to a proposed deal last year would be a “major hurdle”.
We didn’t move beyond what was I think a good idea, but I think a reaction in Australia to the development would be a barrier to us looking at that in the future.
To be honest, I was a little bit surprised; not totally surprised, but the political reaction to the suggestion of us getting together was quite negative.
And from that point of view, I think that’s a major hurdle. I think it’s a big hurdle for Qantas.
The media reaction was much more negative than I had expected.
For that reason I would personally see that as a significant hurdle that would need to be overcome.
Having spent time and effort in debating the issue first time round, you’d want to be pretty sure that those hurdles were not going to be insurmountable.
And what was Qantas doing yesterday: revealing plans to spend $4.4 billion over the next two years as it purchases new aircraft and improve the business. That capex figure is more than the market cap of either BA or Iberia. As is Qantas’ market valuation.
In a briefing for investors, the airline said will spend $1.7 billion in the current 2010 financial year and $2.7 billion in 2011.
Qantas also pointed it that it has an investment grade rating for its debt. Nudge, nudge, BA and Iberia don’t and are European basket cases looking to partner to save themselves taking hard decisions now about reducing costs and the size of their businesses. But don’t read The Australian Financial Review today; it seems to think it’s a good time for Alan Joyce and Qantas to be thinking of merging with someone.
The comment piece didn’t understand the importance of preserving an investment grade credit rating when the rest of the industry is shot to bits: it means you can acquire, not be acquired, something the AFR doesn’t seem to understand. But you don’t acquire someone else’s losses, or pension fund deficit, as Qantas would in a BA link up.
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