Poor little rich Foxtel. There’s really no reason for Foxtel CEO Kim Williams to moan at anything. He complains when the ABC does something, or gets money, he moans about anti-siphoning rules and (justifiably, it must be said), about the current licence fee rebate for Free To Air TV. The reality is that Mr Williams runs the best-performing broadcaster in the country (which is why Kerry Stokes wants his share). Foxtel said today that its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) were $238 million for the six months to December 31, up 21% from the December 2008, half year. Revenue rose 9% per cent to $989 million, from $908 million. Foxtel said it had 1.516 million subscribers at December 31, 2009, which was up 5% from the December half of 2008. Telstra, which owns 50% of Foxtel, said there were no distributions from the Pay TV group to shareholders (News Ltd, 25%, Cons Media, 25%) in the December half year. On these figures Mr Williams has nothing to moan about. He runs a profitable business with a gross profit margin of 24%, or 24c in every dollar. Oh for the security of a monopoly (where he operates) and the steady income from subscriber payments.

Carping over BHP. Some media commentators and analysts moaned yesterday that while BHP lifted its interim dividend 1 cent to 42 US cents, the value of that increase in Australian dollars was non-existent. In fact, it’s gone backwards over the past year. If yesterday’s exchange rate for the Aussie is used (around 87.50 USC), the 42 US cents a share interim, which is fully franked, works out at 48 Australian cents a share. The previous 41 cent a share interim dividend for 2009 came in around 65 Australian cents. But what local shareholders have to understand is that the 2008 dividend was paid when the Aussie dollar traded around 64 US cents. It was low because investors had become scared of risky assets, such as those priced in Australian dollars, and demand for commodities had been dragged down by the credit crunch and recession. As Australia has remained out of recession with a strong economy, the value of the Aussie dollar jumped, meaning shareholders will get less this year. Shareholders and others have to understand that what is good for BHP in the market place (rising demand and prices) is also good for the Australian dollar (hence the rise in the past year), but bad for them when the US dollar dividends are translated into Aussie dollars. On top of that BHP closed around $40 yesterday, a year ago when the dividend was paid, it traded under $28. That’s a rise of more than 40% in the year, thanks to the global recovery. Local shareholders should stop moaning, they are still ahead.

And moaning over CBA. And there was also a fair bit of moaning around the analysts yesterday at the Commonwealth Bank when it wouldn’t play their games and talk up a higher second half dividend or a share buyback. Fairfax media quoted Goldman Sachs JBWere and Macquarie Group as expecting an interim dividend of $1.30 per share, while Morgan Stanley was looking for $1.25. The bank is paying $1.20 a share. “Goldman Sachs JBWere banking analyst Ben Koo questioned CBA chief executive Ralph Norris during an analyst briefing on the potential for the bank to lift its dividend payout ratio given its $6 billion in excess capital above minimum of its target range. Mr Norris said the board had yet to make a decision on the ongoing dividend payout ratio and would “maintain a cautious view”, according to the report.

CBA shares were up nearly 60c after the result was released in them morning. They then fell, ending down 89c on the day, with the reason given the market’s unhappiness with the dividend and an absence of capital management initiatives. In other words, the analysts took a stand against the bank. But that’s as much greed and ignorance in equal mixtures. The CBA and other banks do have excess capital. That’s because times are still nervous, and they all face a new capital and prudential regime from later this year that will require them to keep more capital and liquid assets on their balance sheets. The banks will have to have enough liquidity and capital to survive for a month with no access to the markets. The CBA has no idea how much of that $6 billion it will have to retain, hence the caution. It is also fighting the new proposals tooth and nail, but will fail.

China trade snowed under. On the face of it a big month for the Chinese trade sector, with exports up 21% to $US109.48 billion from January 2009 and imports up a huge 85.5% to $US95.31 billion. The reality was very, very different. January last year featured a trifecta of one-offs. Severe snowstorms which cut production (and boosted prices), the GFC (which cut demand for Chinese goods and Chinese demand for imports) and the Chinese New Year (which shit the place for a week or more). The impact spilled over into following months. This January featured snowstorms (which had a marginal impact on output and demand. Chinese New Year starts on Sunday, so output and exports this month will be down when reported in early March. A much more accurate way of assessing January is to compare with December. On that basis, exports fell 16.3% from December and imports dropped 15.1%. The trade surplus slipped from $US18.4 billion in December to $US14.1 billion January. So a good month, but not as good as the comparison with 12 months earlier would have us believe. Later today, we’ll get the Chinese inflation figure for January: watch for more chat about bubbles and booms.

The China effect on Oz. The fall in imports from December was interesting, a sign perhaps the tentative moves to control demand and prices might have had some impact? There’s certainly been an impact on Australia. China’s iron ore imports fell 25% in January to 46.6 million tonnes from the second highest level ever in December of 62.1 million tonnes. Steel imports also fell (as did steel exports). A more probable factor could have been the cold weather and iced up ports in early weeks of January that cut imports. And the higher imports in December seems to have been stockpiling ahead of the now expected storms in January and Chinese New Year. In fact lower imports are forecast this month because of New Year. Chinese copper imports showed a similar trend; up 25% from a year ago, but down 21% from December.

Grey Days for the Grey Lady. The outlook remains dim for the New York Times Co and its papers, especially the flagship Times. It revealed a higher-than-expected quarterly profit overnight, thanks to cost cuts (such as sacking staff) and not higher revenues. In fact the company warned of a further fall in revenues in the current quarter. Ad revenues fell 15% in the December quarter, not as bad as the 20% plus falls earlier in 2009, but its still not good news. Combined fourth-quarter revenue fell 11.5% to $681.2 million, but the company cut operating costs faster, down 15.5% in the quarter, so earnings rose. the company no longer has any debt deadlines to worry about.

Here we go again, US house prices edition. Just when everyone thought US house prices had steadied and were perhaps firming a touch, out comes a respected research group from the States to pour some cold water on the idea. The Zillow.com real estate website says that one in five US property markets showed signs of a double dip of house prices in late 2009.

It said that after showing price increases for nearly half of last year, prices in 29 of the 143 markets tracked by the site — including Boston, Atlanta and San Diego — flattened or started falling again in the second part of last year, after five or more months of consecutive monthly increases. Home prices in another 29 markets, including Los Angeles and New York, increased each month throughout the fourth quarter, but the rate of increase slowed from November to December in 21 of those 29 markets. Zillow says that across the US, home values fell 5% in the fourth quarter compared with the fourth quarter of 2008. and values fell 0.5% from the third quarter of 2009. The report also found the percentage of single-family homes with mortgages in negative equity rose slightly, to 21.4% in the fourth quarter, compared with 21% in the third quarter. And homeowners who lost their homes to foreclosure reached a high in December.

Corporate decoder #1. In its interim profit statement yesterday Stockland, the big property group said : “Stockland holds stakes in GPT, FKP and Aevum which it originally acquired in order to provide strategic optionality to diversify and grow its core businesses. The 13.1% GPT stake is held via a derivative structure which has been extended for 12 months to May 2011. As a result, the average entry price has increased negligibly and the derivatives are otherwise self-funding for their duration. Stockland owns 14.9% of FKP and retains an ongoing first right of refusal over FKP’s retirement living assets. The stake in Aevum has been diluted from 13.9% to 10.1% following Aevum’s merger with IOR Group. Merger and acquisition activity will only be contemplated if it can secure high-quality assets that fit with Stockland’s business unit strategies and enhances securityholder returns.”

Any idea what it means? Well, it says “we bought these stakes in some competitors when times were good, thinking we could either take them over or get someone else to do it, but times are tough, there’s no money for this sort of thing and we are stuck with them. They haven’t cost much, promise, but if someone makes us an offer…”