Another Friday, another sweep around the betting markets to see where the money is running for the federal election contest. Among the 5 agencies we watch, this week saw changes in the ALP price run in both directions, while changes in the Coalition price were all one way when they happened. Sportsbet pulled the ALP down from $1.26 to $1.25 over the week while Centerbet and Sportingbet bumped their price up for Labor by 2 and 3 cents respectively. On the Coalition side, Centerbet, Sportingbet and Betfair all showed contraction in their prices over the week of between 10 and 20 cents.
Another good Newspoll for Abbott this week moved the probabilities around slightly, with the Coalition now sitting on a 25.6% implied probability of victory – up six tenths of a percent from last week. That makes our time series chart of the aggregated 5 agency implied probability come in like this:
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