The polls are tightening. The long-time favourite in the race may still win — still a popular choice, though many question whether it’s all style over substance — but the challenger has lobbied hard and is closing fast.

We’re talking about the year’s most important vote, today’s Oscars ceremony in Hollywood. What did you think we meant?

For what it’s worth, The Hurt Locker should win Best Picture if story and substance count for anything (James Cameron can have the directing prize for somehow making his little novelty flick Avatar as guiltily watchable as it was for almost all of its seven-hour duration); Colin Firth should win Best Actor (because Mr Darcy finally disappears behind the Tom Ford glasses in the stirring A Single Man, plus we’re yet to see red-hot-favourite Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart); and Meryl Streep will probably win Best Actress (just because Meryl should win everything). We’re live blogging the event with our own version of Margaret and David — Cinetology‘s Luke Buckmaster and The Enthusiast‘s Mel Campbell — on the Crikey website.

As for that other inconsequential contest — today’s Nielsen poll shows Labor and the Coalition neck-and-neck on 42% of the primary vote, with that Speedo-clad ham Tony Abbott up six points in the Most Outstanding Political Leader race — we have no idea. Nuke the popcorn and pull up a chair. It’s starting to get interesting …