Confidence is an essential part of the economy: this week we have seen reports strong and growing confidence among businesses consumers. As well we saw a strong show of confidence from employers who boosted their job ads last month by a record 19.1%, according to the ANZ’s job ads survey. Today we had further confirmation of this tide of optimism from the February labour force figures, which not only confirmed that the Australian economy’s recovery is continuing, but that employers and would be employees are now showing more confidence.  The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% because the initially reported rate for January of 5.3% was revised down to 5.2% in today’s figures.  As well, only handful of new jobs created last month, compared with the 54,000 in January. So on the surface, a slowdown. But that didn’t tell all the story.  In fact the real story from the February labour force report from the ABS is this growing confidence from employers and employees alike. In other words, 10,700 people who haven’t been encouraged enough in recent months to look for work, have rejoined the ranks of those on the hunt for employment; it’s a confidence thing. And coincidentally, the Reserve Bank looked at the performance of the labour market in 2008 and 2009 (during the worst of the slowdown) in its first all electronic edition of its monthly bulletin. The study concluded: “The Australian labour market fared relatively well during the 2008–2009 downturn, with the unemployment rate rising by less than expected and labour force participation remaining strong. And that was confirmed in today’s labour force stats for February.

Daddy’s boy: Clone and heir James Murdoch is a very predictable young man. If dad says do something, he does it, and goes a bit further. He’s done it with the horrid BBC, now he’s pushing the rhetorical envelope around internet content. It’s no longer enough that people want it free, from now on people who engage in piracy should be all jailed. He told the Abu Dhabi Media Summit overnight governments have to get tough on illegal downloading. “We need enforcement mechanisms and we need governments to play ball … There is no difference with going into a store and stealing Pringles or a handbag and taking this stuff. It’s a basic condition for investment and economic growth and there should be the same level of property rights whether it’s a house or a movie. The idea that there’s a new consumer class and you have to be consumer-friendly when they’re stealing stuff. No. There should be the same level of sanctity as there is around property. Content is no different. They’re not crazy kids. No. Punish them.” Quite, James. The Murdochs are pandering to the very governments that condone the stoning of women, the cutting off of limbs of thieves and active discrimination against women. So, James, why not cut off the digitals of people founding stealing from the Murdochs digitally?

Very predictable and hypocritical #1: Back in London there was another bit of illegality that his News International executives are busy trying to tidy up. James oversees the UK media interest of News, among his many gigs. Remember the illegal phone hacking and the News of the World paper and payoffs of hundreds of thousands of pounds to people whose mobiles were broken into by people working for the News of The World? Well, according to the Guardian,  “The News of The World was tonight accused of buying silence in the phone-hacking scandal after it agreed to pay more than £1 million to persuade the celebrity PR agent Max Clifford to drop his legal action over the interception of his voicemail messages. The settlement means that there will now be no disclosure of court-ordered evidence which threatened to expose the involvement of the newspaper’s journalists in a range of illegal information-gathering by private investigators. The case had potentially important implications for Andy Coulson, media adviser to the Conservative leader, David Cameron, who edited the News of the World at the time of the illegal activity and who has said that he does not remember any of his journalists breaking the law.” The Murdochs and News have backed the Conservatives in the forthcoming UK poll. Won’t see this in the media section of The Australian any time soon.

Very predictable and hypocritical #2: Another feature of the Murdochs is their ability to claim special privilege for themselves and their company, with a straight face. Yesterday dad told the summit that there should be less regulation in the Middle East, less censorship so that the winds of creativity can rush through the region. Poetic. Of course his actions tell us otherwise. News Corp has two joint ventures in the region, both with groups that are a part of the ruling groups/government that imposes the very regulations and censorship that he wants to see eliminated. And James Murdoch was making a bold bid as well. In his speech he asked for regulators to give News a light touch. “When we look at different marketplaces … it’s really a question for us about how free a hand we’re going to have to operate.” So we will come if you don’t regulate us. But why then does News get into bed with the governments and groups that have introduced the same regulation the Murdochs want to be free of?

China, again: China’s exports and imports jumped in February from a year ago, but there a couple of points that mean the figures are unreliable. First, the rises are from February 2009, which is when demand for Chinese exports and demand from industry for imports, was slashed by the GFC and credit crunch. Secondly, the Lunar New Year was in January last year, this year it was in February. China shuts down for more than a week, and the impact of the long break is hard to work out when making comparisons especially when the basis is a very weak month as February was last year (and January as well). Exports rose 45.7% in February, from a year ago imports jumped 44.7%  from a year ago as well. The trade surplus almost halved to $US7.6 billion from $US14.2 billion in January. Exports were down 2.2% from January. Combining the two months shows exports rose 31.4% in the January-February period over the same time last year. In January and February 2009 exports fell 21.6% and imports 33.6% (January saw a 43% fall alone) over booming 2008.

Boom/gloom: And a sharp rise in Chinese real estate prices in February has got the alarmists yelling “bubble, bubble, collapse coming”. Prices of commercial and residential property in China’s 70 largest cities rose by 10.7% in February from the same period a year earlier, up from the 9.5% year-on-year gain in January, according to China’s statistics bureau. The figures include subsidised and rent-controlled housing, where low price rises drag down the overall increase, as well as commercial real estate, where prices have been subdued or falling. Analysts said that means a much bigger jump in house prices has been hidden: some said the real rate of increase was around 22% over the past year. But in a column published in the Financial Times, Jan Ulrich, JPMorgan’s head of Chinese equities and commodities, is more sanguine. He concludes: “Many observers are concerned that China’s economy has grown too rapidly, and are ready to point to pockets of overcapacity as proof of an imminent system-wide collapse. While some areas of the economy do deserve closer monitoring, there is little to support the sceptics’ views of an imminent crisis”.

Wither Wesfield? Back in mid-2008, Westfield revealed it had picked up a stake of 2.96% in UK property group Liberty International. That seems to have followed a move into the register by the big US shopping mall group, Taubman. Nothing was much heard of the stake as the GFC and credit crunch intensified and Westfield itself was forced to raise billions of new capital and pull its horns in. Taubman was the same, but last month it moved on failed US rival General Growth Properties, with Westfield reportedly interested. General Growth now looks like it will escape. This week in London, Liberty revealed plans to split its near $A10 billion empire, with a company based on its shopping centres being listed, along with Capital and Counties, which will own the real estate and developments based on Covent Garden and Earls Court. That’s the real prize for Westfield, which has one centre in London finished and another due for completion in 2012, in time for the Olympics. The UK remains Westfield’s choice for expansion, it’s too big in Australia and a giant in the US, where shopping will be tough for years to come. The UK won’t be any easier, but Covent Garden and Earls Court are high quality assets that will always out-perform in any sort of property market.

London warned, again: One of the world’s major credit ratings group has surprised by warning that unless the UK government doesn’t soon reveal a package of measures to slash spending faster than already stated, it faces losing the trust of markets and its coveted AAA rating. According to London media reports,  the warning came from Brian Coulton, Fitch’s head of sovereign ratings, who told a conference, that UK has seen “the most rapid rise in the ratio of public debt to GDP of any AAA-rated country”. The current plan to halve the deficit by the middle of the decade was “frankly too slow, a pedestrian pace. Why the UK thinks it has more time than other countries , we’re not sure. This needs to be reoriented,” Coulton was quoted as saying. Britain’s deficit this year is 12.6% GDP, the highest among G10 states. There is a “distinct possibility” that Britain will face something closer to Japan’s “lost decade” when a bursting debt bubble left the country on a permanently lower growth path. “The UK faces the same massive deleveraging by the private sector,” said Coulton.

Now that’s a lot of red ink: So if Fitch is antsy about the UK getting its house in order, why not the United States? Figures out this morning raise that question, again. The US budget deficit is getting wider, up $US221 billion last month (a record). The deficit is now on track to top 2009’s full year record of $US1.4 trillion. Government spending rose 17% to $US328.4 billion, from the same month a year ago, while in a small glimmer of hope, revenue rose 23% to $US107.5 billion, the first increase in receipts in 22 months. Five months into the 2010 fiscal year the deficit is $US651.6 billion compared with $US589.8 billion during the same period in the previous fiscal year. So why is Fitch not monstering the gridlocked US government and warning it of a possible lost of market trust?

Who cares? In another useless list, Forbes magazine says Carlos Slim of Mexico is now the world’s richest person, toppling Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. The magazine said that Slim (who bailed out the New York Times last year) saw an $US18.5 billion jump in his wealth to $US53.5 billion. Gates fell to second as his net worth increased $US13 billion to $53 billion and Buffett was third with $US47 billion, a rise of $10 billion. Slim made his money out of buying a stare run phone company cheaply from friendly politicians, and then exploiting lose regulation and a blind eye to his building of a communications oligopoly, Gates and Buffett have built business in a far more competitive environment. But Forbes magazine has never worried about how they made their money. Even near monopolists such as Slim are lauded for being entrepreneurs. He has used his dominant communications empire in Mexico to finance expansion into South America and the US.