A time for caution over interest rates

Time for caution. A further indication this morning that the Reserve Bank should not be too gung-ho in forcing up interest rates. After yesterday’s retail sales figures showing that there is certainly no return to boom times, we now have the Australian Industry Group’s index of manufacturing activity showing the same thing.

Despite these warning signs that ending the government stimulus programs is reducing economic activity, the markets still think that the Reserve Bank will put official rates up when it meets next Tuesday.

The Crikey Interest Rate Indicator

Memories of Bill. The stories about Tony Abbott taking acting lessons so as not to appear so aggressive brought back memories of 30 years ago when I arranged for then Opposition Leader and later Governor-General Bill Hayden to receive tuition from a prominent stage director. The Labor leader had the unfortunate habit back then of raising the pitch of his voice when he became a little excited and it sounded very much like he was whining.

During the 1980 election campaign when he suffered from laryngitis and had to speak softly the whingeing sounds disappeared and the public clearly liked him better. Hence, the decision to send in the voice coach to try and get the new sound made permanent. Unfortunately after some weeks of morning rehearsals in front of the mirror, Bill tired of doing the practice and reverted to being himself.

Abbott, who has rejected the idea of getting a little coaching himself, should consider what happened to his Opposition leader predecessor and reconsider

If only it were so. On a day when Tony Abbott was reported to be taking acting lessons (Yes, I know, the story must be an April Fools Day joke for even the Liberal Party could not be so stupid as to let this kind of thing become public) I only wish The Guardian’s effort was actually true. “In an audacious new election strategy,” the paper reported, “Labour is set to embrace Gordon Brown’s reputation for anger and physical aggression, presenting the Prime Minister as a hard man, unafraid of confrontation, who is willing to take on David Cameron in “a bare-knuckle fistfight for the future of Britain”.

The Guardian’s suggestion for a new Labour Party poster

Brown aides had worried that his reputation for volatility might torpedo Labour’s hopes of re-election, but recent internal polls suggest that, on the contrary, stories of Brown’s testosterone-fuelled eruptions have been almost entirely responsible for a recent recovery in the party’s popularity. As a result, the aide said, Labour was “going all in”, staking the election on the hope that voters will be drawn to an alpha-male personality who “is prepared to pummel, punch or even headbutt the British economy into a new era of jobs and prosperity”.

I reckon that the imaginary internal party polling would accurately reflect fair dinkum research if it was carried out in Australia. I am sure that the tactic The Guardian outlined that involved provoking a physical confrontation at one of the three ground-breaking TV debates between the candidates would attract excellent ratings for its many replays and do Abbott far more good than attempting to curb his aggression.

In this scenario substituting Australia’s leaders for The Guardian’s Poms, Abbott, instead of responding to a point made by Kevin Rudd, would walk over from his microphone with an exaggerated silent display of self-control, bring his face to within an inch of the Labor leader’s, and in a subdued voice, ask “what did you just say?”, before delivering a single well-aimed blow to his opponent’s face, followed by a headlock if required.

On dangerous ground. The Melbourne Herald Sun — that once great paper — was on dangerous ground this morning with its April Fools Day spoof. Advocating a modern-day version of the stocks for drunken hooligans is the kind of idea that law-and-order prone politicians just might pick up and run with seriously in this Victorian election year.

Still after Barnaby. The pursuit of Barnaby goes on. I suppose today he will be in the poo with the ABC commentators for using the words dog poo.