Some call it an accounting for the crunch and recession that took us to the edge of Depression, others describe it as retribution, and only the start. Whatever, the charges against Goldman Sachs (or as Rolling Stone famously dubbed them, the Vampire Squid) go right to the heart of the slump, credit crunch and everything that went with it, before and after.
Now Wall Street and other financial centres are running scared.
Hours after the charges against Goldman Sachs were revealed, US banking regulators had a very busy post-5 pm Friday evening. They shut eight banks, sold several of them and started winding down the others on what was the busiest day this year so far. The banks (the biggest number was in Florida) had total assets of $US6 billion and took to 50 the number of closures so far this year, double 2008’s 25.
The eight banks were the most authorities had closed since nine were seized last October (they involved six in one group in one state). Lead regulator the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp has forecast the failure will peak in the third quarter of this year, and the cost will be more than $US100 billion.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs reports first quarter earnings on Tuesday night our time and CEO Lloyd Blankfein is due to appear before the Congressional investigations subcommittee tomorrow week (that’s the serious committee of Congress). It will be tough for him and the bank, and financial markets.
Goldman has vehemently denied the allegations against it – saying they have no basis in fact or in law – but the profit report and the charges will make for some ugly reactions tomorrow night.
The SEC told Goldman nine months ago that it was being investigated. The fact there’s been no move to settle indicates the seriousness of the charges.
After botching investigations such as the Madoff Ponzi scheme, Lehman Brothers and the whole subprime mess, the SEC wants a big win while Goldman rightly understands these charges will be devastating to its business if proven (remember though, they are not criminal – now that’d be terminal).
Goldman sources have told various US and UK media outlets that it believes it has a strong case and will fight the SEC action “all the way”, issuing two statements in an attempt to rebut the SEC civil charges.
Because the charges are civil, not criminal, Goldman’s fate won’t be fully hitched to the court decision. It will be able to pay penalties and whatever else a court might decide to levy if the charges are proven. But there will come a point in the defence where it becomes apparent to everyone that either Goldman has a case to answer, or the SEC will fail. The latter would see resignations and other actions inside the Obama administration.
The former would see the bank try to reach some sort of agreement that would involve payment of a fine, but not any admissions by Goldman or charges against senior management, starting with CEO Lloyd Blankfein and his President Gary Cohn, who famously claimed last year that Goldman Sachs had not needed saving by the US Government after Lehman Brothers fell over.
With eight US banks failing on Friday (remember, that’s 50 for the year so far), the Goldman allegations will undermine the increasing confidence of late in markets.
If proven, the Goldman charges (detailed in 22 pages) will resolve the debate over tougher rules for banks and other financial groups and force a split in their operations, hiving off trading and other high-risk businesses and force greater disclosure.
Markets will be watching the attitude of Warren Buffett, Goldman’s biggest shareholder and saviour during the crunch. He can convert his current securities into shares at $US115 (the shares ended at $US162 on Friday night). His securities lost $US1 billion in value on Friday, but are still in profit (the strike price for converting his securities to Goldman shares is $US115 a share).
Remaining in the company or converting his securities to shares would be an enormous vote of confidence in Goldman from the man regarded as the most upright figure in global finance.
The German and UK governments criticised Goldman Sachs; the German comments are especially important as one of the biggest losers from this Goldman deal was state-owned bank IKB, which nearly collapsed in late 2007 with losses from CDO deals. Several European banks that lost money in the deal said they were reviewing the matter and could sue Goldman.
Now it’s up to the SEC to make a charge of deliberate deception stick. But it’s the moral side of the charges that will be most devastating for Goldman and the rest of the banking industry.
What pension fund or institution could possibly want to do business with a bank that behaves in the way Goldman is portrayed in the SEC’s suit? Even if Goldman is cleared, the mud will stick. Every transaction will be suspect and every offer and pricing questioned. The market senses that: Goldman shares fell 13% on Friday night following the announcement (they were down 15% at one stage), wiping out $US12 billion of market cap.
As Fortune magazine commented, “…investors all over Wall Street heard the footsteps of an apparently revitalized federal law enforcement apparatus.”
“This litigation exposes the cynical, savage culture of Wall Street that allows a dealer to commit fraud on one customer to benefit another,” Chris Whalen, a bank analyst at Institutional Risk Analytics, said in a note to clients on Friday quoted by Fortune.
Meanwhile, the official at the US Securities and Exchange Commission running the civil fraud charges against Goldman Sachs is Robert Khuzami, who, before taking up this role, was general counsel (head in-house legal beagle) for Deutsche Bank, which was also a big player in the synthetic CDO markets, according to a New York Times blog. He is now enforcement director of the SEC.
The blog suggests that his presence on the case means Deutsche Bank is in the clear. But it then quotes an SEC spokesman who explained that Mr Khuzami would not be able to handle cases involving any deals he may have had a role in, not deals involving Deutsche Bank. No wonder Deutsche Bank was off more than 8% on Friday, second only to the 13% slide for Goldman Sachs.
Let’s hope central banks around the world have their safety nets in place. They might need them if the civil fraud charges from the US Securities and Exchange Commission against Goldman Sachs are shown to be correct, and other legal action results.
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