Farmer: nothing ventured nothing gained — picking the winners

A little addition to the election form guide today: an early evaluation of the probabilities of victory for every one of the 150 House of Representative seats. It leads me to the conclusion that the most likely result on August 21 is that Labor will end up with 86 seats, the Coalition 61, with independents, Greens and other parties holding three.

It’s pretty much an expectation of there not being much change from the current position. After notionally changing who holds seats to take account of altered electoral boundaries Labor go into the election on 88, the Coalition 59 with three independents.

The starting point for my calculations was the Crikey Election Indicator which we publish in every issue of the Crikey email. I’ll update the probability list for each seat occasionally during the campaign as the Indicator changes. I’ll also be endeavouring to get a better idea than I have at the moment on the prospects of Greens in seats like Melbourne.

PROBABILITY OF VICTORY IN HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVE SEATS

Note: where the probability is shown as 0% it actually means something less than 0.05%.