• Last week when Tony Abbott’s careless choice of words seemed to suggest he regarded disabled access as a trivial matter, he apologised quickly and we moved on. No one seriously suggested Abbott thinks disability issues aren’t important. Yesterday, when his careless choice of words turned the debate debate into an issue about s-xual assault, he only had to do the same thing. A quick apology, and we’d have moved on. Instead, bizarrely, he got angry and claimed it was a Labor smear and “no one respects women more than me.” You can bet it was that line and not the original remarks that had people shaking their heads in lounge rooms across the country last night. Critics keep calling Abbott misogynist, which is deeply unfair, even if he has conservative religious beliefs. But he does seem to have some strange mental wiring that clouds his judgement when it comes to gender issues.
  • Our hacks couldn’t be so shallow as to be gulled by Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan catching the bus with them, surely? In any event, yesterday’s stunt of joining the press bus paid off handsome dividends for the Prime Minister as she had her best day of coverage since early in the first week (the RBA chipped in too, it has to be admitted). Vision of Gillard talking off the cuff to employees on the floor of the Woolies distribution centre at Warnervale also gave her a nice, sleeves-rolled-up look. If that’s “real Julia” Labor could do worse.
  • In contrast, Tony Abbott’s relaunch of his PPL policy went poorly. Reducing but retaining the levy still enables Labor to run its “Coles and Woolies tax line”. The delay means the Liberals look uncommitted to a policy that Abbott says he has undergone a fundamental change of heart on. The new numbers look like a cost blowout. And remember, this all springs from Abbott’s decision to go solo on this policy – if he’d run it through shadow cabinet and his partyroom most of these problems would have been avoided.
  • Ignoring the usual Shanahanigans, this morning’s Newspoll breakdowns confirm what was always the case – the election is about whether the Coalition can secure enough seats in Queensland and NSW to defeat Labor, bearing in mind losses (in Victoria and South Australia) and gains (WA and Tasmania) elsewhere might net off against each other. Newspoll’s current numbers suggests they must be in with a strong chance. The only peculiarity is the strength of the ALP vote in Victoria and SA. For most of the last three years SA has looked diabolical for the Liberals, suggesting Christopher Pyne might be looking for a new job after the election. The collapse of the Labor vote earlier this year appeared to remedy that, but now it’s looking ominous again for Pyne and Andrew Southcott. Victoria now looks even worse. Labor must be hoping they can pick up enough of a swing down south to stave off the loss of a swag of seats up north and maybe one each in Tassie and WA.