It’s been three days since the Reserve Bank produced one of the most confident and upbeat outlooks for the Australian economy, and it has yet to feature on the front page of a newspaper or be used by anyone from either side of the election campaign.
The reticence of the Liberals and Nationals is understandable, the forecast makes a complete nonsense of the their bad debt and deficit campaign (which is really a way of creating a magic pudding to finance their spending).
But it is also odd that Wayne Swan and Julia Gillard haven’t stood up and started using the forecast to demolish the Liberals: the ALP is truly recreating itself in the mould of the Gallo gang from the New York Mafia wars of the 1960s that was immortalised in the book, The Gang that couldn’t shoot straight.
Judge for yourself. There is just one word in the RBA forecast that defines the who absurdity of the campaign and the stance on the economy from both sides. That word is “robust” as in this line from the outlook, contained in the third State of Monetary Policy for 2010.
“The forecast of robust GDP growth in 2011 and 2012 is partly driven by forecasts of above-average growth in the capital stock, especially in the resources sector, and the labour force,” the bank said:
“The latter assumes both continued above-average growth in the working-age population and a modest increase in the participation rate. Nevertheless, from 2011 through to the end of the forecast period, some tightening of capacity is expected following the period of below-average growth in 2008 and 2009. The labour market is expected to tighten gradually over the forecast period. The outlook for overall demand is driven less by consumption than has been the case over much of the past couple of decades.
“While consumer confidence is buoyant and the labour market is strong, growth in household consumption is expected to be a little weaker than that in income. As a result, the saving rate is expected to rise modestly, with households being more cautious about their finances than in the past. Business investment is forecast to grow strongly over the forecast period, driving growth in domestic demand.
“The outlook for the business sector is positive, with signs that investment is picking up following temporary weakness in the wake of the tax incentives for equipment spending. Investment is also being underpinned by strong internal funding for businesses; survey measures of business profits remain at above-average levels, with the recent increases in bulk commodity contract prices providing a boost to mining profits.
“Engineering investment is expected to grow strongly over the period, reflecting the $43 billion Gorgon LNG project and a number of other significant resources projects in iron ore, coal and LNG. Resource exports are expected to grow strongly as a result of the earlier and ongoing significant expansions in capacity.”
On inflation, the central bank says its central forecast for underlying inflation “is around 2.75% over the next year or so, similar to its current rate”.
“CPI inflation is, however, likely to be above 3 per cent for the next year due to the increase in the tobacco excise and large increases in the prices of utilities. Beyond the next year, underlying inflation is expected to gradually increase to around 3 per cent in 2012, reflecting capacity pressures in parts of the economy.”
Central bankers do not use words like “robust” lightly. It seems that that no other word could found to adequately describe the strength of the economy the bank is expecting by 2012, and with moderate inflation and low employment.
There has been little analysis of the election in the context of the economic outlook painted by the country’s independent central bank since Friday, although Lenore Taylor in The Sydney Morning Herald tried today when she pointed out how the government had given away its one advantage.
Joe Hockey will be trying to paint the economy as grimly as possible at the National Press Club today, arguing that the high debt (it isn’t) and big deficits (reducing rapidly) are bad for us.
They aren’t, if they were the economy would be labouring like the Japanese or the American economies. Even high debt and deficit Europe is starting to grow quickly, as we will see with second quarter GDP numbers this week. But don’t tell Joe Hockey, a little bit of knowledge is dangerous for our Joe, he may be forced to think.
Meanwhile, in the latest data to be released, according to the ANZ job ad figures in this morning Australian job advertisements rose to an 18-month high in July, with the number of online ads again higher, and newspaper advertising increasing after three months of consecutive falls. ANZ’s monthly survey showed the total number of job ads rose 1.3 per cent to a seasonally-adjusted average of 171,685 per week. But the total figure for the month was down on the 2.8 per cent growth in employment ads recorded in June.
Housing finance news is grim with finance for owner-occupier commitments in Australia falling by a seasonally-adjusted 3.9 per cent in June, beating analysts’ forecasts for a two per cent slide. Total value of housing finance fell to $20.71 billion, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said this morning.
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