Markets, not polls, the best guide to public opinion

Small Labor losses the best guess. Goodness knows what to say about the opinion polls. In the last few days we have had Morgan putting Labor’s two party preferred vote share at 57.5%, AC Nielsen in the morning having them on 53% and this morning it’s Newspoll with Labor 52% to the Coalition’s 48%. I just don’t believe that public opinion moves in as dramatic a fashion as these and the other polls — like those on voting intentions in marginal seats — are telling us.

I’ll stick with the market as providing the best guide and it is suggesting Labor is just above 52% nationally. Making a few adjustments to suggest that Labor is doing worse than that in Queensland and NSW and better in Victoria and South Australia my best guess is that Labor will end up with 81 seats (down from its notional 88 in the old Parliament), the Coalition with 65 (up six) with Independents and Greens on four (up one).

Nothing unique for Australia about boat people. And we think we have problems. In Canada they are not arriving in dribs and drabs on little boats via Indonesia but on proper ships direct from Sri Lanka.

A little double dip music. Economists are finally making the big time with country and western singers using them as inspiration.

A new song from Merle Hazard