New data from Essential Research suggests Labor faces its worst swing in NSW, not Queensland, with the potential loss of 10 seats and a hung parliament.

Essential has crunched state-based data from the second through fourth weeks of the campaign, finding a big swing against the government in NSW — 6.7%, which on a state-wide basis would see the Coalition pick up seats like Page, Bennelong, Eden-Monaro and even Lindsay.

Queensland, where the Coalition holds a 10-point primary lead, saw a swing of 3.4%, enough to ensure the Coalition retains notionally Labor seats like Dickson and Herbert and handing it seats like Flynn, Longman and Dawson. A much smaller swing to the Coalition in WA — where Essential’s sample size is too small to offer concrete data — would deliver them Hasluck.

The loss of seats in NSW and Queensland is only slightly offset by a small swing to Labor of 0.7% in Victoria, enough to deliver McEwen and La Trobe. An even smaller swing, 0.6%, in South Australia would dash Labor hopes of picking up the seats of Christopher Pyne and Andrew Southcott. Essential’s Tasmanian data is also too small to offer a relevant sample.

Plugging those state outcomes into Antony Green’s election calculator, that would leave a hung parliament with the Coalition on 74 and Labor on 73 seats — assuming Labor can hold off the challenge of Adam Bandt in Melbourne.

The only good news for the government is that Essential’s data is sourced from two of Labor’s worst weeks of the campaign. Essential’s polling is yet to record the small trend back to Labor that appeared in other polls last week (it hasn’t shown up in either its rolling fortnightly sample or last week’s weekly figures). That might indicate the worst outcome Labor faces is a hung parliament, but the fact that NSW appears poised to swing so hard against Labor is surprising.

NSW also looks bad for the Greens, with a primary vote of only 7%, far short of the high level Lee Rhiannon needs to reach a quota on the slim flow of preferences she’ll get. There’s a much higher level of support in Victoria (11%) and South Australia (12%), suggesting both those states will produce new Greens senators. Queensland and WA are polling at 10% for the Greens.