Okay, so it’s an odd title, but it’s an odd week!
First up, it’s worth looking at the two-party swing towards and away from the ALP that each seat experienced as a function of the notional ALP two-party preferred of that seat heading into the election.
If we break them down by state, just what occurred at the election becomes really easy to visualise (at least as an alternative to the visual of a train derailing at high speed). We’ll do NSW, Queensland and WA in one batch, then later, SA and Victoria in another:
These charts really show not only the general pattern, but also the seats that behaved unusually. In Queensland, it was all swing to the LNP across the board while WA was exactly the same except for one lonely seat — the Coalition held seat of Canning.
In NSW a cluster of four ALP seats stood out that had a swing towards them, with Page and Eden-Monaro having swings to Labor of about 2% and Robertson and Dobell with swings about 1%.
Also worth noting is that big swag of very safe Labor seats sitting heading into the election — sitting on two-party preferred results of 60% or greater — having swings against them of 7%-10%, or in the case of Fowler, a massive 13.4% swing against.
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