The NSW Coalition is headed for a strong win in Saturday’s state election, according to polling by Essential Research, with voters still distrustful of Labor’s capacity to manage key issues.
From polling over the last fortnight, Essential has a (relatively small) sample of 659, which shows the Coalition primary vote on 44%, down seven points from its landslide performance in 2011. Labor is on 36%, up more than ten points from the 2011 debacle, while the Greens are on 9% (they recorded 10.3% in 2011) and others are at 11%. Calculating a 2PP outcome given the unpredictability of preference flows is difficult; Essential’s conservative estimate using several previous elections is a 2PP result of 53%-47% to the Coalition. On a uniform state-wide outcome that would deliver Labor around 20 seats, but preference flows and regional differences make that more a guess than a prediction.
More damning for Labor is just how badly it lags the Coalition on virtually every significant issue in the eyes of voters. Forty five per cent of voters trust the Coalition on economic management compared to 25% who trust Labor (that is, not even some people intending to vote Labor trust the party to manage the economy as well as the Coalition). The Coalition leads Labor by 14 points on police and public safety, 12 points on roads and freeways, 11 points on public transport and eight points on NSW’s future energy needs.
The only issues on which Labor leads the Coalition are its two traditionally strong issues of health and education (on which, for example, Labor leads the Coalition federally by ten points at the moment). However, Labor only leads the Coalition by four and three points.
The Coalition also leads Labor by 14 points on “planning for the future”, suggesting that while Mike Baird’s commitment to electricity privatisation has given Labor a scare campaign to run, it has also communicated to voters that the Coalition is engaged in addressing long-term challenges. And that is more likely to bolster the Coalition’s electoral fortunes when a relatively more normal and competitive political environment is re-established in NSW in its second term.
So when electricity is privatised, and everyone is scream blue murder when their bills double, who will the people look to blame? The MSM? No? Labor? No? Themselves for being duped? Never! I suppose at least Baird is being up front about the impeding sell off.
Would love to see Labor get up just to see how long Abbott lasts as Federal leader.
I’m with you Alan. Have been saying for months that the people of NSW will have a long time to regret their vote if it goes to Mike Baird this time around.
No matter how much they like Baird, the privisation of THEIR assets will proceed, and regardless of government spin, electricity prices wil rise. Just ask those of us in SA and Vic!
To elect on emotion and ignore the main policy which disadvantages everyone, is just daft!!
If Mike Baird wins government there will be a spend up on the proceeds of privatisation of electricity assets …
… … but what happens when the money runs out???
Look around for something else to sell?
… or engage in a process of swingeing cuts … at which, the Liberals are masters …
Labor must ensure that no one of the likes of Eddie Obeid ever gets selected again … it will take some time sadly to get over the trust deficit that this criminal caused …
I laugh at the very notion of “economic management” this is nothing more than an illusive theory based on a financial system that is non accountable but most of all not real.
How can a system of “fractional lending” in which central banksters print cash out of thin air at a ratio of 9:1 which is not backed against “anything” result in anything different than debt through society to the point where the government sells off the peoples assets (against their wishes) and eventually the peoples country, to the multinationals which are owned and funded by the anonymous banksters in the first place???
Whenever I hear the word “economy” I realize the public in all countries are being taken for the biggest ride of their lives, and the most amazing thing is they still cant see through this giant of all hoaxes. I believe if you offered them the red or blue pill they would choose the blue one purely on instinct.