Crikey campaign scorecard: things get fiery as Keating weighs in

WHO WON THE DAY?

Bernard Keane, Crikey politics editor: The Coalition successfully shifted the focus to trade unions yesterday, albeit based on a fairly trivial Victorian dispute in rural firefighting. Arguing that Australia would be run by “militant unions” if Labor wins, as Turnbull is arguing currently, is a bit of a stretch given that industrial disputes data suggests there are no militant unions actually left, but far better talking about that than Medicare. Is the Medicare scare campaign Labor’s last, best hope? It’s undoubtedly given Shorten momentum, but on its own it won’t last into next week, let alone until next Saturday.

Dr John Hewson, former Liberal Party leader: My scare is bigger than yours! Both sides now recognising the extent of the uncertainty and hope to negate each others’ scare while risking just looking desperate. Very hard to judge an electorate that has not really engaged ,and although aggregate polls say “close”, the likes of ReachTEL in Western Sydney and South Australia have caused some concern and uncertainty. Let’s see who blinks first.

Eva Cox, writer, feminist, sociologist, social commentator and activist: Now we have the finger-pointing campaign: who is telling the bigger lie? Like little boys in the school playground, the leaders shriek “he’s lying”. Private medicare vs soft on smugglers? Peter Dutton’s boat intervention is very tacky, particularly with the attack on Anne Aly, linking both to raise terrorism anxieties. The Medicare scare is over the top but less socially damaging than the Coalition prejudice creations! Shorten did well on 7.30, so give him the day.

Simon Banks, Managing Director at Hawker Britton and former CoS for Kevin Rudd: The Coalition’s $50 billion corporate tax cut is the centrepiece of its “jobs and growth” plan. It’s not popular and Malcolm Turnbull has tried to reduce its significance by saying that it won’t come in for “8 years, 3 elections” and that voters will get a chance to vote him out at the next election if they don’t want it to proceed. They have sought to bolster its credibility by invoking the superior economic management and tax cuts of Paul Keating. But they forgot to ask Paul. In a typical blistering letter in the AFR today, Keating has reminded us all what true tax reform looks like — and that it has to be funded. In the two months since the budget, the government first refused to say what the 10-year cost of the tax cuts was. Since, it has failed to say what offsets will be used to fund it over those 10 years. It’s a simple and key question the Coalition either can’t or won’t answer. And that failure bolsters Labor’s campaign on Medicare, which continues to bite. So who won the day? First, Keating; second, Labor.

Simon Breheny, director of policy at the Institute of Public Affairs: Leigh Sales was excellent on 7.30 last night, prodding Bill Shorten over a range of issues. Key among them, the Labor Party’s Medicare attack on the Coalition. The best question of the night, and the most powerful moment of day 47? Sales to Shorten: “Isn’t the message that you’re sending with your hyperbole around Medicare that you don’t think that the truth alone can win you the election?” Brilliant, and unanswerable. Coalition wins.

CASH TRACKER

Coalition:

• $20 million for a jobs and investment package for Geelong and the Surf Coast; and
• $150 million to fund a redevelopment of the University of Tasmania.

Labor: 

• Nada.

CAMPAIGN DIARY

Malcolm Turnbull: The PM is in Tasmania today and will be visiting the seats known as the “three amigos”: Braddon, Bass and Lyons. These seats are currently all held by the Liberals on margins of 2.6%, 4%, and 1.2% but it is predicted that they will most likely lose at least one of these seats and could lose all three. Speaking to ABC radio this morning he covered education, foreshadowing today’s spending announcement for the University of Tasmania, and fielded questions on the backpacker tax and pension increases. He said a Coalition government would provide strong support for pensioners and, regarding the backpacker tax, they would work closely with industry to provide the “right incentives and support at harvest season”.

Bill Shorten: Following his appearance on 7:30 last night, in which he was faced with some tough questions on Labor’s rhetoric surrounding Medicare, Shorten is today campaigning in Darwin. The Opposition Leader is set to continue to focus on the potential privatisation of health services by discussing payments for veterans’ health services which Labor says could be outsourced by a Coalition government. He appears to have stepped back form claims that the Coalition will privatise Medicare but said at a press conference this morning that “piece by piece, if given the chance: [Turnbull] will dismantle Medicare”. He also outlined Labor’s policy to reform temporary work visas, which he said would stop exploitation and ensure Australian’s have the opportunity to apply for jobs before they are offered to overseas workers. On the backpacker tax, which appears to be one of the key issues of the day, Shorten promised a Labor government would immediately review the tax.

The Greens: The Greens leader Richard Di Natale spoke out against the Coalition’s planned plebiscite on marriage equality this morning on ABC radio. Referencing the recent experience of the Greens’ candidate for Higgins, Jason Ball — who had campaign posters defaced with homophobic slurs — he said a plebiscite would be divisive and would give legitimacy to hateful views. On the Greens’ plan to make inroads into the lower house by winning inner-city seats, Di Natale said they were looking to the long term: “If it’s not at this election, certainly at the next, you will see a number of lower house seats that will become Greens seats.”

ISENTIA DAILY LEADER INDEX

No surprises here: Turnbull gained the most media mentions yesterday across all platforms while Di Natale trailed by a large margin.

HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE VOTED?

ZINGER OF THE DAY  

MALSPLAIN OF THE DAY

KEATING WEIGHS IN

The Coalition has repeatedly used Paul Keating’s legacy of tax cuts as ammunition to support their own $50 billion tax cuts; but in a letter today to The Australian Financial Review Keating has vehemently denied the suggestion that he would support such a tax. He called the proposed tax cuts “unfunded” and a “massive impost on the national fiscal balance”. During his time as treasurer and prime minister Keating cut the company tax rate from 49% to 33%, but he argued that he did this by broadening the base of the tax system.

“Tax reductions are desirable as long as they are affordable, but I would never have countenanced a $50bn impost on the budget balance with a discretionary unfunded tax cut.”

Finance Minister Mathias Cormann has responded by saying that Keating has only said this because he’s a “Labor man”: “He knows in his heart of hearts, of course he does, that a more competitive company tax rate will help boost investment.”

A FIERY ISSUE

DR ALY SMEAR CAMPAIGN

The minister for foreign affairs Julie Bishop on RN Breakfast this morning repeated Michael Keenan’s claims that Labor’s candidate in the West Australian seat of Cowan, Anne Aly has questions to answer over a submission she made to a NSW court in the trial of radical Islamic preacher Junaid Thorne.  Aly is a Perth-based academic who specialises in deradicalisation; she wrote to the court when Thorne was on trial for using a false name, suggesting that he could be a candidate for a deradicalisation program funded by the federal Attorney-General’s department. Bishop said this morning that Aly had sought to help someone who was a convicted criminal and this was beyond the parameters of her role. Bill Shorten said yesterday that the Coalition were running a “desperate smear” campaign and pointed out that Aly had been invited to the White House by the US Department of Homeland Security due to her expertise in deradicalisation.

BREXIT

The referendum on whether Britain should leave the EU is looking extremely close; with the “leave” vote stronger than expected at this stage. Julie Bishop, speaking on RN Breakfast, said that the government was monitoring events closely and that the referendum and the potential implications of a Leave win reinforced the importance for a strong economic plan. Bill Shorten said that the fundamentals of the Australian economy were “solid” and that “we cope with international events all the time”.

QUIRK OF THE DAY

It’s all about business at the front and party at the back for WA Liberal MP Andrew Hastie, who commissioned a graffiti artist to retouch his campaign billboard after it was vandalised this week…

TWEET OF THE DAY

In keeping with our policy of sharing as many cute animal pics as possible, here are some dogs waiting by polling booths:

TL;DR

Paul Keating has attacked the Coalition’s proposed company tax cuts while Labor continues to focus on protecting Medicare. Turnbull is today touring marginal seats in Tasmania while Shorten is in Darwin.