THE NUMBERS GAME

Today’s Guardian/Essential poll has the Coalition down 46-54 to Labor, just one point better than yesterday’s Newspoll. Like that poll, it found Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull‘s personal rating is down, though it still has him ahead of Bill Shorten in the preferred PM measure by a healthy 12 points.

The PM’s task is being made difficult by section 44’s slow whittling of the parliament. Yesterday, it was the crossbenchers caught up, with scrutiny turning to Jacqui Lambie‘s Scottish born father. The Tasmanian Senator is expected to receive formal advice from the UK Home Office on her citizenship status today. Senator Cory Bernardi told the ABC last night that “[Lambie has] been telling people that the results aren’t going to be good for her”.

Having lost senator Malcolm Roberts to the constitution, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson yesterday misplaced his replacement, Fraser Anning. Hanson said Anning had walked out on the party but the new Senator said he was given the boot. Anning will now sit as an independent, reducing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation to three senators.

Turnbull would be brave to believe the ruinous crisis is over, though he has now reached a deal with Shorten that mandates MPs disclose their citizenship status by December 1. The Bennelong byelection has been set for December 16.

HUNDREDS KILLED IN IRAN

A major earthquake has killed over 400 people in Iran as well as several in Iraq.

The US Geological Survey put the quake’s magnitude at 7.3, though an Iraqi official said it was 6.5. Striking Iran’s west, the jolt left 6600 people injured and is the worst earthquake to hit the state in a decade.

Kurdish areas on the border of Iran and Iraq have been badly impacted while the tremor was felt as far away as Baghdad.

“I thought at first that it was a huge bomb,” a Baghdad local told Reuters. “But then I heard everyone around me screaming: ‘Earthquake!'”

STEADY ON, DON

Malcolm Turnbull pushed US President Donald Trump to find a peaceful solution to the North Korean standoff in a private meeting, according to The Daily Telegraph.

At a one-on-one meeting on the sideline of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Trump reportedly told Turnbull that an attack on North Korea was on the table, while Turnbull pushed for the enforcement of economic sanctions. In another meeting that included Japanese President Shinzo Abe, all three leaders agreed an attack should be the last resort.

READ ALL ABOUT IT 

Julia Gillard on board as super start-up Spaceship takes off with $50m funding round

Gina Rinehart warns of collapse of mining investment unless big changes are made

Ferry McFerryface to be name of new Sydney ferry after public vote

WHAT’S ON TODAY

Sydney: ABC managing director Michelle Guthrie is expected to announce a major restructure to the broadcaster.

Sydney: NBN Co releases its first quarter results.

Sydney: Opposition leader Bill Shorten to speak at the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Sydney: Former prime minister Paul Keating speaks at CEDA’s annual dinner. 

Adelaide: Joint sitting of the South Australian Parliament in order to approve new federal Nick Xenophon Team Senator Rex Patrick.

THE COMMENTARIAT

Citizenship crisis: In Canberra, a descent into madness — Laura Tingle (Australian Financial Review $): “Beyond not having a candidate who voters might clearly vote for, there is the question of how much capacity to significantly change policy settings might exist if you did change leaders. Answer: zip.”

Vote shows we can respect views with which we disagree — Tony Abbott (The Australian $): “There have indeed been nasty social media posts on both sides of the argument but there’s been no bullying, intimidation, or prejudice from the No campaign.”

CRIKEY QUICKIE: THE BEST OF YESTERDAY

Guthrie to launch another ABC restructure amidst sky-high reports of workplace stress — Emily Watkins: “Only 26% of those surveyed were happy with the way their career is tracking at the ABC, and 70% don’t know what skills the ABC will need them to develop. The survey also found that 72% of staff reported dangerous levels of workplace stress.”

Is it time for Turnbull to pick a fight with the right of his own party? — Bernard Keane: “With things looking so grim for Turnbull, the marriage equality legislation might be a good opportunity for him to strike back at the right and make clear that the Smith bill is the way forward and the government will not tolerate attempts to delay its passage, or use it to strip longstanding anti-discrimination protections under the guise of ‘religious freedom’. If that prompts a backlash from the right, all the better: Turnbull will have the backing of voters and be able to argue he has bent over backwards to support the party’s position on marriage equality.”

Manus protest is failing, so let’s talk about a boycott of Australia — Anthony Loewenstein: “It would inevitably lead to a hardening of views among some Australians, and vicious opposition by many in the media who would label it unrealistic or extreme — but that’s exactly the point. Business-as-usual ideas have failed for more than two decades. It’s time to try something new.”

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