Phwoarrr… crumbs… aieeee. The United Kingdom, at time of writing, is going to the polls for a general election on December 12. A five-week campaign (after parliament dissolves next week), with the polling day at the eve of winter, when darkness comes at 4pm, it’s damp throughout, and sodding Christmas is on the way.
It’s a festival of miserabilism that only the Brits could pull off. Maybe Morrissey will record a theme song.
The election has come because Labour now has no excuse by which to oppose it. The EU has granted a Brexit extension to January 31, which the government, as compelled by the Benn Act, has accepted. The possibility of a Boris fiddle — agree on an election, later change the date by executive act — has been removed by cementing it in law.
The whole thing countermands the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act — Boris tried to get it through on that yesterday, which would have given him said wiggle room — but that law was always PR flim-flam anyway.
The Tories themselves resisted when amendments enfranchising EU citizen residents and 16-year-olds loomed, but these were defeated. The final 438-20 vote was Tories + some Labour v Tory and Labour dissidents, and independents. One hundred Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the Scottish National Party (SNP) abstained.
The Tories go to the polls with a lead of around 35-37%, to Labour’s 22-25%, Lib-Dems on 16-20%, Brexit Party 10-14%, and Greens 5-7%. The SNP may well take a clean sweep of Scotland’s 59 seats, while DUP and Sinn Fein will share out Northern Ireland (and Sinn Fein don’t sit), so it’s only England and Wales in contention.
There, the Tories are quietly panicking that their lead is soft, and that the Brexit Party — now run by Nigel Farage and former members of the Revolutionary Communist Party — won’t stand down. Or can’t really, since Boris’ deal puts a customs border between Northern Ireland and the UK — something Farage has rejected as treachery.
The Tories are also cognisant of a surging Lib Dems. The latter have 50 target seats and about 40 are Tory holds.
But for Labour, 22% is 22%. Its, erm, evolving message — election, then second referendum if they win — may send Northern voters to Brexit or Boris, while London voters go Lib-Dem or Green (who are surging).
Deals will have to be done, but there’s a headbanging culture of victory or nothing in Labour. Corbyn wanted the election, others around him didn’t, and he thinks he can campaign his way to a big result. He did last time. But last time he was polling the 40% he got.
Jez v Boris will be a tale of two politics, and both are gunning for triumph or disaster, and not much in between. In the early winter. Aieeeeee… crumbs… phwoarrrr!
Just unbelievable that the Tories are in with any kind of chance to win this election after their pathetic performance as leaders and the epic damage they have done to the country.
Corbyn and Labour could not possibly do worse. and very likely would do a hell of a lot better.
Jeremy, ring Jacinda, she’ll explain.
Ditto Albo!!!
The Lib Dems appear to be the only party with a clear position on Brexit. Don’t do it. Surely the big risk for the Tories is that much of the south-east, aghast at the capture of the Tory party by far-right nationalistic thugs and wreckers, will opt for the Lib Dems. Labour is hopelessly torn (similar to the existential division in the ALP between information economy knowledge workers/professionals and the traditional ‘blue-collar’ support). Even Boris is really just a cabaret act – an Etonian panto to keep the really ugly fringe of the Brexit Party at bay. Surely a case for proportional representation? And who wants a bet that the next big act in UK politics will be the separation of the union itself. A shambles. And all self-inflicted.
It will probably be the end of Corbyn, leaving that Priviliged prat, who helped cause the whole schmozzle, in power for up to 5 years. The Tories may get a third of the vote but a good majority because of first past the post voting. And the House of Lords is still there whiling away the hours in their ivory towers. Oh, what a balls up!
Two errors. December 12 is a Thursday. When the 2017 election was called, Labor was polling low 20s.
Rundle, what’s going on?
Lots of elementary errors of late …