Last month, to the great ire of the pro-lockdown crew, I questioned the hysteria surrounding the mutant British COVID strain. Alas, a month later my doubts appear justified.
The British B117 strain is certainly more contagious than the original strain of the virus, but it appears to be far less so than first thought. Original estimates claimed it could be up to 70% more transmissible. Recent studies show an actual increased transmission rate of 35-45%.
There were also claims that the variant would be resistant to vaccines. These too appear incorrect.
This hasn’t stopped state premiers from both sides of politics from rushing to lock down Perth, Brisbane and now Victoria off the back of the alleged “hyper-infectious” strain. According to Dan Andrews and his new health minister Martin Foley, this variant is moving at “hyper-speed”. (In Brisbane, the “hyper-infectious” strain infected one spouse; in Perth it infected no one; and so far in Victoria, a handful of close contacts).
One of Australia’s leading epidemiologists, Catherine Bennett, told the ABC that UK health data indicated carriers of the UK strain are infecting 14.7% of close contacts, compared to 11% with the earlier strains. In real terms, let’s say the average person has 15 contacts: that means they infect 2.2 people instead of 1.65 people.
More contagious? Yes. Hyper-infectious? Not so much.
The difference is 34% — far from the 70% levels still being claimed. (This was similar to the findings in a recent US study that is not yet peer-reviewed.)
This is being borne out in the UK, which has seen the seven-day average case load plummet from 60,000 per day in early January to around 14,000 per day now. A 77% drop in a month.
Of course there are a number of factors that have contributed to this, including a strict lockdown — although numbers had started dropping before lockdown would have had full effect — and the beginnings of the rapid vaccine rollout. But it’s difficult to correlate the panic over a super-infectious strain alongside a 77% collapse in infection numbers.
The state premiers and the prime minister claim to be guided by science in their rush to close economies (Berejiklian aside). Yet those same premiers happily propagate gross exaggerations of the transmissibility of the UK strain.
Our elected leaders are either ignoring the studies or they are misleading their constituents. But as long as causing fear wins votes, it’s unlikely anything will change.
As a Crikey subscriber who truly values good journalism and diverse considerate opinion, I wish to state that I don’t think I should have to pay for reading the same article by the same
journalistwriter in edition after edition of your generally excellent fare . I’m fully aware that Mr Schwab does not like the concept of government actions informed by expert medical advice; he’s already told us so many times. Should one want an explanation for the term ad nauseam there is no better example than the Crikey articles by Adam Schwab.But, he didn’t use the phrase “Dictator Dan” as he has in 90% of his other articles about COVID in Victoria – can’t you see he’s changing?!!! (sarcasm)
PS I have submitted many direct emails to Crikey about this writer’s last 8 months of efforts.
He used to write about corruption etc, like his book title says, but clearly that’s irrelevant now, and it’s left to Keane et al. to investigate that topic.
Here’s a previous letter of mine to them:
“Dear Crikey:
Oh look, another tired and boring article by Adam Schwab, who’s decided to try and generate more interest in his opining by calling his column “Dan-istan”.
He worked really hard to try to get Joseph Heller’s ‘Catch-22’ to fit the theme, but failed. Sorry, Adam, leave it to talented writers like Guy Rundle, to try to do that.
Given that Mr. Schwab is billed as: “He is also the author of Pigs at the Trough: Lessons from Australia’s Decade of Corporate Greed.”,
I thought he might be interested in looking at the $30 million airport land boondoggle, or maybe Gladys’ $250 million grants rorts, or Australia Post timepieces, or…or…
Nope. Crikey just lets his bang his noisy little homemade drum yet again.
Is he now a one-trick pony? He can only write about Melbourne’s lockdown? Old animals get put out in the back paddocks, get retired. He should be retired from Crikey’s payroll.
By the way, check out The Conversation’s https://theconversation.com/of-all-the-places-that-have-seen-off-a-second-coronavirus-wave-only-vietnam-and-hong-kong-have-done-as-well-as-victorians-148520
Is Adam gonna start banging on about Israelis being locked down to only a single kilometre radius during their second wave? Am I gonna start hearing about “Generalissimo” Ben?
No.
I’m disappointed, Crikey. At you, for indulging him, like you indulged Mark Latham and Gerard Henderson years ago. At him, for wasting my subscription fee.”
Yawn.
The 18 months of publishing the self advertisements of the Human Headline, despite universal condemnation everytime they appeared, shows the regard held for the readership.
The PAYING readership will not cop this crap for long.
What a tosser. You don’t have to read Adam’s writings – No One forces you. I for one & I suspect many others want an open discussion.
You & others of your ilk seem just like the Demon-craps in the USA who want censorship on everything they don’t like. So truth becomes a one trick pony. Believe or else!
Unhinged & mendacious diatribes are not generally regarded as “open discussion”.
“ad nauseum” You mean the comments section, right?
FrankB spelled ad nauseam correctly, more than you could manage despite having the opportunity to copy.
Obviously for you there’s nothing like “Eyes wide Shut”
Methinks the co-Founder of Luxury Escapes has a vested interest in downplaying the impacts of Covid19 plus the inevitable variants. Relieved that the QLD and WA Chief Medical Officers advised immediate lockdowns to (successfully) stop community transmission, regardless of the variant. This is a disease which leaves people unable to function normally, potentially for life, regardless of whether they ‘recover’ from the initial infection.
“This is a disease which leaves people unable to function normally, potentially for life, regardless of whether they ‘recover’ from the initial infection.”
Totally disagree but then you’ve been listening & believing MSM. You should do a bit more investigation.
“Totally disagree but then you’ve been listening & believing MSM. You should do a bit more investigation.”
Agreed. The MSM is the instrument of cognitive dissonance and predictive programming. The MSM grabs hold of our cerebal cortex and distorts rational thinking. It is a matter of great bewilderment that Cky commenters quote straight out it’s handbook. Do we trust politicians and big govt? No. Do we trust beaurocracy? No. Do we trust the pharmaceutical industry? No. And yet according to most of the commenters here on Cky, the very fulcrum point of all the above, the MSM, is quote worthy. It’s bewildering.
You might like to make yourself familiar with the initial findings of a study done in New York, and released recently.
The study involved ‘ a multidisciplinary collaboration between neurology, critical care, microbiology, and neuroradiology specialists to uncover the root cause of this ‘brain fog’.
They went looking for remnants of the virus in spinal fluid in recovered patients, didn’t find any, but did find;
“We found that these patients had persistent inflammation and high levels of cytokines in their cerebrospinal fluid, which explained the symptoms they were having,” says the co-first author of the study, Jan Remsik.
Cytokines are messenger proteins in the immune system. They can be triggered by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and whipped up into a frenzy known as a ‘cytokine storm’ of potentially fatal excessive inflammation. Cytokine storms have been responsible for the more severe cases of Covid-19 witnessed in ICUs across the globe.
A similar phenomenon has been witnessed in patients undergoing certain kinds of immunotherapy treatments, such as for cancer, with the suspicion being that the cytokines somehow make their way to the brain, causing a slew of neurological symptoms similar to those found in ‘Covid brain’.”
Not from MSM that, either.
P.S. Cytokine storms don’t just attack the brain, they can attack any organ, and any healthy tissue:
“When the cytokines that raise immune activity become too abundant, the immune system may not be able to stop itself. Immune cells spread beyond infected body parts and start attacking healthy tissues, gobbling up red and white blood cells and damaging the liver. Blood vessel walls open up to let immune cells into surrounding tissues, but the vessels get so leaky that the lungs may fill with fluid, and blood pressure drops. Blood clots form throughout the body, further choking the blood flow. When organs don’t get enough blood, a person can go into shock, risking permanent organ damage or death.”
It’s Interesting, but there is lack of modelling test strategies with cytokine relevance and the spread of the disease. Out of New York?…If it looks like a hoax and quacks like a hoax it’s probably a duck.
We need to see the paper in order to determine (1) the research methodology and (2) the error bars in the measurements. The study should have a title and a publisher.
David, excuse the “off topic” request but a matter of minorities in Xinjiang has presented itself (once again). Just wondering if you have any recent references to brass plates in the USA (only two that I know of) that are accustomed distributers?
You probably think that ‘dispute‘ means ‘refute‘.
Opinion is free and worth a great deal less.
Fact is priceless, worth “more than gold and a multitude of rubies“.
Rubbish. When consideration is given to the original “fudged” covid figures by the worldwide Industrial Health & Medical Complex, most of the hand fits a glove Australian state govts have followed suit with totally unnecessary and unjustifiable lock-downs. From here forward the sheep are now in the wolf’s clothing and it’s time to take it to the streets. If there are any more lock-downs expect big trouble.
PS – the “luxury escapes” thing is old hat, boring, monotonous and tedious and fast becoming the baby being thrown out with the bath water.
To the Capitol, wanker.
Do you understand the meaning of ‘incitement’?
What? to peacefully protest in the street and express one’s opinion? Since when is that incitement?
I must have misread the implicit threat in “expect big trouble“.
Come on, Schwab. Have you got the guts to answer that charge? Right here, with your sleeves rolled up like Rundle?
Didn’t think so.
Oh joy! Adam Schwab again, to tell us how everyone’s wrong except him.
No doubt the best cure for Covid19 is a good expensive holiday
I’m with you.. How does this blah writer get a gig on Crickey? he’s tiresome at best!
This article seems to neglect the fact that time passes. It seems to talk about Perth, Brisbane and Victoria as though they occurred all at the one time and not sequentially, such that each lockdown took on board the lessons of the previous one. Every day is building on previous information, and if that information is ‘this variant is 30-70% more infectious’ only an idiot wouldn’t take that on board at the start. The problem is almost that Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane’s lockdowns were so successful that we are having trouble getting more data. We’ll need to wait until NSW lets B117 get out of control (not before the end of March, please) to get data on how it spreads.
That said, there is something strange about B117. It seems to linger longer inside, but not affect anyone outside. That’s why it only infected 6 people in Brisbane, all in the hotel or partners of people infected in the hotel. (and not, just one as Schwabby misleadingly writes above). Maybe the increased aerosolisation means it just blows away in any place the air is even remotely moving.
Legionnaires Disease – “any place the air is even remotely moving” – aka air conditioning.
“The team found that B.1.1.7 is more deadly than previous variants for all age groups, genders and ethnicities. “This provides strong evidence that there indeed exists increased mortality from the new strain,” says Henrik Salje, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge, UK.”
I ‘suffered’ the Perth lockdown, with the mandatory mouth-face masks.
I’d gladly go through the same again to prevent SARS-COV-2 getting out into the community.
I’m just relieved the one person with the virus causing the lockdown wasn’t a superspreader, though he does seem to be taking longer to clear the virus than usual.
Is Crikey publishing Adam Schwab just to generate anger in its readers? On the principle that anger sells?
I cannot think of any other reason than as click-bait.
I appreciate a well informed contrarian view.
Schwab’s is neither well informed nor contrarian – he is a common-or-garden grifter.