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Yesterday in Australia was all about a toxic union of economically illiterate old-Labor-style industrial interventionism with Liberal corruption and cronyism — in the form of a mooted gas-fired power plant at Kurri Kurri that may well never be built and will be unnecessary if it is. At the same time, the world’s primary fossil-fuel industry body was detailing exactly how we shift to net zero emissions by 2050.

As Crikey reported yesterday, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report on the path to net zero by 2050 — coming from a body closely aligned with fossil fuel industries — demolishes what passes for the Morrison government’s entire energy policy. And even where it doesn’t — on its support for carbon capture and storage — it demonstrates how trivial that technology will be in achieving net zero.

The technology exists now, the IEA says, to get us to net zero. But it requires commitment and focus from governments. What does the path involve?

Now

No more coal-fired power plants. No new coalmines; no extensions of coalmines. No more oil and gas field development. If it’s not out now, it stays in the ground.

2025

The sale of fossil-fuel boilers for heating buildings are banned.

2030

All new buildings are constructed to be “zero-ready” (meaning they are highly energy-efficient and use only renewable energy); 60% of all vehicles sold are electric; every year 1020GW of solar and wind power are added in generation capacity (260GW were added globally in 2020); 30% of global energy supply is renewables; coal is 12%.

All coal-fired power stations are shuttered in developed economies. Global demand for coal has fallen by nearly 3% every year; demand for oil falls more than 2% annually. Energy investment reaches US$5 trillion, adding significantly to global GDP; 14 million jobs are created in clean energy, 16 million in energy-efficiency and infrastructure, and 5 million are lost in fossil fuels.

2035

Half of heavy vehicles are electric; internal combustion engine car sales are banned; electricity sectors in developed economies reach net zero.

2040

Half all existing buildings are retrofitted to be “zero-ready”; the aviation sector has been forced to use at least 50% low-emission fuels; electricity generation reaches net zero globally and all coal and oil power plants without abatement technology are shut down.

2050

Fewer than 15% of existing buildings aren’t “zero-ready”. Solar and wind provide nearly 77% of all electricity and heat. Gas and coal provide 3%, all “abated” with some kind of capture technology. Nuclear power provides 16%; hydrogen 3%. Of the overall energy sector, including industries like transport, oil provides 8%. Global demand for coal has fallen over 5% annually for 30 years. Natural gas demand has fallen 4% a year over the same period; oil more than 4%.

It cannot be emphasised enough that this is the roadmap of the most fossil fuel-friendly international body — one that has been serially criticised over a decade for grossly understating the uptake of renewables. If anything, its numbers are likely to be conservative on how cheap renewable energy will be and how much investment will flow into it. And it posits the rosiest scenario possible for carbon capture and storage: 19% annual growth each and every year all the way to 2050. But that still garners CCS coal just a 1% share of electricity generation in 2050.

What’s also noteworthy is that its numbers reinforce the point made by New South Wales Environment Minister Matt Kean and, increasingly, federal Labor under Chris Bowen: that the transition to net zero is a massive jobs winner and boost for economic growth.

It identifies a net 9 million extra jobs globally in the energy sector, as well as another 16 million jobs required in areas like construction and electric vehicle production. The pathway adds 0.4% a year to global GDP growth for a total increase by 2030 of 4% above business as usual (and the International Monetary Fund signed off on the IEA’s modelling).

Scott Morrison’s continued support for fossil fuel, and ridiculous antics like Kurri Kurri, are not just climate denialism. They are economic vandalism of the first order.