Australian diplomats may return to Kabul, but Afghan helpers remain in the fog of war

Months after shutting its embassy in Afghanistan, Australia is considering re-establishing its diplomatic presence, the latest move in a quiet but muddled retreat from a country where we fought our longest military conflict.

In April, Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne announced Australia’s embassy would temporarily close, right after following US President Joe Biden’s move of withdrawing troops by September. This morning the ABC reported Payne is looking at a tentative return, which may involve stationing intelligence officers in CIA headquarters — before possibly bringing back some diplomats.

And just weeks after Australia’s final troops left Afghanistan with a whimper, talk of a diplomatic return would mark another development in a withdrawal that has been too quick, ill thought out, and strategically confused.

Withdrawal a ‘complete fiasco’

Australia’s hasty closure of its embassy was always meant to be temporary. In May Payne confirmed Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) officials would still visit Afghanistan from elsewhere in the region: “It is Australia’s expectation that this measure will be temporary and that we will resume a permanent presence in Kabul once circumstances permit.”

What we know about the tentative return so far suggests it’s not necessarily a backflip — flying in a small group of DFAT and intelligence officials isn’t inconsistent with Payne’s May announcement of a visiting diplomatic presence. But retired army officer Stuart McCarthy, an Afghanistan veteran, says it’s a sign of how Australia’s “rush from the exits” has been a huge blunder.

“What it highlights is … Australia’s withdrawal and how we’ve conducted that withdrawal in conjunction with other allies was a complete fiasco,” he told Crikey.

The government’s justification for re-establishing a presence is that Australia would lack good intelligence on the ground, especially as the Taliban wrestles back control of the country. In June, American intelligence concluded the Afghan government could collapse within six months.

But the ABC’s report reveals the mixed messaging from Australia’s Defence community about the future of Afghanistan in the lead-up to the embassy closure. In May, Defence chief Angus Campbell told the government’s national security committee that Afghanistan’s security profile would rapidly deteriorate after the allied withdrawal. At the same time, he was publicly dismissing fears the Taliban would overrun the country, and talking up the likelihood of a negotiated settlement with American forces. Veterans were alarmed.

McCarthy says the Taliban’s advance, which has triggered the push to re-establish some ground intelligence, didn’t surprise people with experience in the country: “We’ve seen what the Taliban is made of. There was no question in our minds that we would’ve seen the brutality that’s unfolding.”

No plans for local staff

The embassy closure had big implications for Australia’s efforts to process thousands of visa claims made by Afghan local staff who helped the Australian Defence Force during the war and whose lives are in real danger from the Taliban. Returning some Australian staff to Kabul would make it easier to speed up a process where bureaucratic sluggishness and a lack of ground presence has left many people to die.

But there’s no word on whether this would expedite evacuation and resettlement. And even if Australians return to Afghanistan at a vague point in the next few months, it may not be soon enough to protect people.

The ABC reported Payne was reluctant to close the embassy, suggesting there was disagreement within government about how to manage the tail end of the withdrawal. And that confusion only makes it harder for Afghan staff to get protection from Australia.

Labor says the government’s withdrawal lacked proper planning, particularly around local staff.

“The Morrison government withdrew all Australian staff and closed the embassy in Kabul without explaining how it will continue to support Afghanistan’s stability and development,” Labor’s foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong told Crikey. “The minister needs to make up her mind and stop leaving Afghan staff behind.”