If the world followed Australia’s lead on climate change, humanity would be dead

The most important climate science update for almost a decade shows we still have a narrow path to avoiding full-blown climate catastrophe — but it requires every country to give its absolute all.

In the face of today’s science, Australia’s extraordinarily inadequate commitments look like a wilful act of harm against future generations, and a catastrophic failure of leadership. Fortunately, it doesn’t have to be this way.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) landmark assessment comes just 82 days out from the most critical round of international climate negotiations for many years, and in a year that has seen Australia slip even further behind the rest of the world.

It comes against a backdrop of unprecedented heat, fires and floods in the northern hemisphere and scenes that are eerily familiar to Australians after our devastating 2019-20 summer. It shows that the scale and pace at which humans are altering the climate system has no precedent. 

Climate change is already wreaking havoc around the world with worse to come; truly catastrophic turns of events this century — such as the sudden collapse of ice sheets or the shutdown of ocean currents that shape our weather — cannot be ruled out. It shows that Australia, through increases in fire weather, deadly heatwaves and damage to critical ecosystems, is particularly vulnerable. For the Pacific, which has contributed almost nothing to the causes of climate change, the stakes are even higher.

The message is simple. The pace of emissions reductions over the coming decade will be the difference between a liveable future for today’s young people and a future that is incompatible with well-functioning human societies.

When Australia put forward a 2030 emissions reduction target six years ago (26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030) it was already among the weakest of all developed countries. Meeting it would see us retain our status as one of the most polluting countries on earth. Astonishingly, the Morrison government has remained stubbornly wedded to that target while almost every other advanced economy has substantially strengthened theirs.

Pressure on Australia to strengthen its 2030 target has been building for months, including from our most ardent allies, the US and UK. As we count down the days to COP26 in Glasgow, the IPCC report is sure to pile on further pressure. 

Make no mistake: if all countries were to follow Australia’s recalcitrance, humanity would be heading into a barely survivable future. Based on the latest science and taking into account Australia’s national circumstances, the Climate Council recommends we should reduce our emissions by 75% below 2005 by 2030.

The report also carries a pertinent message about the lunacy of our “gas-fired recovery”. As well as being a key factor behind Australia’s abject failure thus far to substantially reduce carbon dioxide emissions, our gas industry has also contributed to a recent rise in the concentration of methane in the atmosphere.

The report makes clear that methane is a powerful and dangerous greenhouse gas, and that limiting future warming depends on deep, rapid and sustained reductions in its emissions. Put simply, there can be no new gas developments and we must transition away from this fossil fuel as quickly as possible.

Unlike some of our peers, Australia is blessed with almost unrivalled potential for renewable energy, giving us everything we need to prosper as the world moves beyond fossil fuels. 

While no developed country has more to lose from runaway climate change, none has better potential to help build the clean economies of the future. The science is unequivocal: every choice, every year, and every fraction of a degree of avoided warming matters. This may be our final warning.

Dr Simon Bradshaw is the head of research at the Climate Council.

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