(Image: AAP/Lukas Coch)

It’s very obvious by now that Scott Morrison is in full-blown election mode. Since last week, the Coalition has doubled-down on presenting a binary choice to voters: freedom under the government v a Labor opposition committed to endless lockdowns and border closures. 

The government knows it needs a sharp, cogent message. Ever since half the country went into a lockdown that could’ve been avoided with a functional vaccine rollout, its polling numbers have been shocking. The latest Newspoll has Labor on track for a landslide. And Roy Morgan now puts the opposition up 54.5%-45.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

As we learned in 2019, there’s no such thing as a uniform national swing, and individual seat polling is far less accurate. And Morrison’s freedom message is clearly calculated to play better in locked-down states. Unfortunately for the government, Roy Morgan’s individual state swings also deliver bad news.

Let’s start with NSW, where Premier Gladys Berejiklian has wholeheartedly abandoned COVID Zero and now seems in lockstep with Morrison’s message about reaching vaccine-driven freedom as soon as possible. Before the current outbreaks, the government saw NSW as key to its reelection hopes, with 10 Labor-held marginals on its radar.

But Roy Morgan’s poll shows a 4.8% swing to Labor since the last election, enough to pick up two seats (Reid and Robertson), and put two more (Lindsay and Banks) under threat. It also pours cold water on the Coalition’s hopes of a clear election-winning gain in the premier state. The government wants to pick up “coal seats” like Hunter, Shortland and Paterson by wedging Labor on mining. But how much will that narrative resonate in an election likely fought primarily over management of the pandemic? Will aspirational voters in the Sydney mortgage belt really flock to the Coalition after an avoidable recession?

The promise of freedom should play better in Victoria, locked down more than any other state. Instead, Victoria is where the polling numbers are most catastrophic for the government. Roy Morgan has Labor leading 59.5% to 40.5%, a 6.4% swing since the last election, where it was already Labor’s best state. On that swing, Chisholm, Higgins, Casey, Deakin, La Trobe, Flinders and Kooyong are gone. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Health Minister Greg Hunt would be out of Parliament. The Coalition could lose the next election in Melbourne alone.

If not in the locked-down states, where will Morrison’s message work? The strongest ammunition for their “wedge Labor on freedom” strategy is recalcitrant Labor premiers in Queensland and Western Australia, who refuse to commit to reopening their borders when the federal government wants. But Annastacia Palaszczuk and Mark McGowan are immensely popular figures, leading states where people are living normal, COVID-free lives.

In Queensland, which delivered Morrison the 2019 election, the government is at its electoral peak. While Roy Morgan has them ahead of Labor there, they’ve still copped a 4.9% swing from the last election. That could give Labor four seats — Longman, Leichhardt, Brisbane, and Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson. Of course, Dutton was expected to lose last time and hung on. Queensland is confoundingly unpredictable. With George Christensen and Andrew Laming quitting, Labor could be more confident about Dawson and Bowman. 

The loudest recent bickering has been with WA. Attorney-General Michaelia Cash warned the courts could force open the hard border. Emperor Premier Mark McGowan responded by accusing the government of being on a mission to bring COVID to his disease-free paradise. 

Picking a fight with WA seems weird given a) the McGowan government is immensely popular and locals are pretty happy with the way things are right now; b) an internal report from the WA Liberals called their own party a “political wasteland“, and c) the government needs to keep all its seats there.

Again, Roy Morgan has Labor ahead in Western Australia, with a 6.6% swing to the opposition since the last election. That would deliver Labor Swan, Pearce (where MP Christian Porter is already beyond embattled) and Hasluck. And every attack on McGowan’s border puts those seats further in doubt. 

Notably, the government’s sniping about closed borders isn’t directed at Liberal states like South Australia and Tasmania. But even in those states, current swings would deliver Labor three seats all up (Boothby in SA, along with Braddon and Bass in Tasmania).

This is, of course, an absolute best-case scenario for Labor. Individual seats often buck state- and nation-wide swings. Well-known ministers like Dutton, Frydenberg and Hunt could easily hang on thanks to name recognition. Labor could blow it like last time. And Morrison has the immense strategic advantage of being able to call the election at the most politically convenient time between now and May. No wonder he’s already talking about better days ahead.