Rex Patrick pings deal: is this just another Coalition procurement shambles?

There may be some understandable political cynicism about Prime Minister Scott Morrison ramping up the national security agenda in the lead-up to the federal election, but the significance of his joint announcement with US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson of a partnership to acquire a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines can’t be diminished. 

This is a very big strategic decision with long-term national security, geopolitical and economic consequences.  

There is a huge range of uncertainties and risks, but the main question is perhaps simple: why should we expect Morrison, his ministers and Defence bureaucrats to do any better with this deal than all their previous Defence procurement disasters?

I don’t think we can be at all confident.  

Of course, Morrison would really like this dramatic announcement of AUKUS to be an exercise of set and forget in the run-up to the election. First the big announcement, then nothing happens publicly until after an 18-month joint study project by all three governments.  

Labor’s Anthony Albanese appears ready to go along with this. He’s already set a very low bar for Labor to support the nuclear submarines project. His main concern appears to be to open a private consultative process with the government so Labor can get the inside running on how the project is shaping up between now and the election.  

I don’t think that’s good enough. Private chats between government and opposition are not going to provide anything near the level of scrutiny and accountability required. The procurement of US or British nuclear-powered submarines is a decision of great significance and should be subjected to rigorous and wide-ranging scrutiny by the Parliament.   

Accordingly I am going to press for the Senate foreign affairs, defence and trade references committee to open an immediate inquiry to ensure that all the angles — including alternative conventionally powered submarine procurement options — are fully explored and understood. The committee should produce an initial report before the election.

I’ve been a strong critic of the French submarine deal — the delays and cost overruns are huge and unacceptable, and the government was right to pull down the shutters on the dud program. But we have to be very careful we don’t move from one massive procurement disaster into another that hasn’t been thought through properly.

There are huge uncertainties about this announcement, including the selection of a US or British submarine, numbers, cost and schedule of acquisition and delivery.

Morrison has indicated they will be built in Adelaide, but it’s unclear whether this would involve manufacturing or just assembly of pre-manufactured modules supplied from the US or UK — and this has huge implications for local content and employment. Johnson seems to think there will be plenty of jobs created in the north of England and Scotland.  

Either way, if the project proceeds there will be operating nuclear reactors sitting on hard stands at Osborne and moored in the Port Adelaide River.

Acquiring, operating and maintaining a nuclear submarine fleet without a domestic nuclear power industry is a challenge that must not be underestimated. This decision is likely to reignite debate over nuclear power options for Australia. It can’t be said there is much political consensus about that. 

And the project would also be likely to require new treaty-level agreements with the US and/or the UK, requiring congressional and parliamentary approval.

The wider geopolitical reasons and implications for this proposed procurement must be thoroughly examined. The Senate foreign affairs, defence and trade references committee will need to undertake a wide-ranging inquiry to properly inform government, opposition, the Parliament and — most importantly — the Australian people before the election.

This is a huge decision, taken as a consequence of an absolute procurement shambles by the Turnbull and Morrison governments. We don’t want an even bigger repeat of that failure — and this massive project should not proceed further without full transparency and scrutiny.