Newly elected Premier Dominic Perrottet at NSW Parliament House in Sydney (Image: AAP/Dean Lewins)

In the end the partyroom meeting was a formality. Dominic Perrottet was elected NSW premier by the NSW Liberal Party this morning. Not even a defiant challenge from long-time friend Rob Stokes or a global WhatsApp outage that stalled attempts to tally votes could stop him. 

It’s an unsurprising victory: Perrottet was always seen as departing premier Gladys Berejiklian’s natural successor. And over the weekend it became clear his team had the numbers. By this morning Stokes justified staying in the race in order to give the partyroom a choice.

“We don’t live in North Korea,” he said.

In the end he got five votes to Perrottet’s 39. And with the formalities out of the way, Perrottet gets a chance to lay down his marker as the first party leader from the Liberal right in over a decade. 

What changes?

Before Perrottet had even won the ballot, journalists were being backgrounded about him bringing forward the easing of lockdown restrictions in Sydney to this Friday. 

At a press conference this morning, Perrottet appeared to hose that down, maintaining he was committed to Berejiklian’s reopening plan and saying he’d meet with the crisis cabinet this afternoon to discuss the roadmap. But he has always been fiercely pro-business, and a staunch opponent of lockdowns, pushing for them to be removed back in July. There’s every chance he could stamp his authority on the job by easing restrictions sooner.

If that doesn’t go according to plan, and COVID spreading among the unvaccinated seriously strains the health system, Perrottet could face some difficult early choices, especially with three byelections looming. 

Perrottet, a devout Catholic, is far more openly conservative on social issues than Berejiklian or senior moderates like Environment Minister Matt Kean. An outspoken anti-choice advocate, he opposed decriminalising abortion (passed under Berejiklian) and will oppose a voluntary assisted dying bill set to be introduced soon. 

While he maintains he’ll allow a conscience vote for Coalition MPs on the latter, a government he leads will have a more socially conservative tinge. Progressive thought-bubbles — like a proposal before cabinet to soften drug laws last year — are even more dead.

Climate will be another big test for whether a Perrottet government changes direction. Last week NSW committed to halving emissions by 2030, the latest sign the state government takes climate change more seriously than its federal counterparts. But much of that leadership has come from Kean, likely to be promoted to treasurer in a reshuffle. While Perrottet has in the past derided climate change as “a religion for the left” today he praised his government as “world-leading” on environment, and said earlier comments were made in respect of his fiscal conservatism.

Relationship with Canberra and beyond

On Sunrise this morning, Prime Minister Scott Morrison hosed down rumours of a tetchy relationship with Perrottet. “We’ve got an honest relationship. When we disagree, we disagree. But the next day we get back to work,” he said.

Morrison was being asked about reports from August that he’d lost his cool at Perrottet, dropping the “f-bomb” in a phone call finalising details of financial support for NSW. The then-NSW treasurer had broken ranks with the federal government by repeatedly calling for JobKeeper to be reinstated in response to the Sydney outbreak.

A change in leadership could have some difficult federal implications for the Liberals. While Morrison’s political opponents accuse him of showing favouritism towards his home state, Berejiklian’s personal popularity was useful to him in a state crucial to the Coalition’s reelection chances. Now the prime minister can’t rely on riding on Berejiklian’s coat-tails. 

At a state level it’s given more hope for the opposition, which has played a clever hand through the NSW outbreak under the new leadership of Chris Minns. Minns is yet to face a serious test, but Perrottet’s apparent reactionary views on social issues gives Labor plenty of ammunition.

But a religious conservative could play well for the Liberals among some voters in western Sydney, the key battleground for the next state election and the part of the country with the most “No” votes in the 2017 marriage equality postal survey.

With lockdowns, byelections and a federal poll all looming, Perrottet’s first few months will be frantic. But 2023 is still a long way off, and he’s got plenty of time to make his mark.