NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard, chief health officer Kerry Chant and Premier Dominic Perrottet (Image: AAP)

It was to be expected, but the new modelling of case numbers in New South Wales still seems shocking. The state has been warned to expect 25,000 new cases a day by the end of January as transmission surges and restrictions ease. 

The messages have been mixed: from politicians it’s stay calm and celebrate our high vaccination rates. But from others, like NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant, it’s be cautious and wear masks indoors. Elsewhere, Western Australia has again tightened its borders to Victoria and NSW, and across Europe restrictions are being reintroduced as the Omicron variant spreads. 

These conflicting viewpoints follow two years of fear and panic and are doing nothing for our mental health, experts say, as we are primed for worry and anxiety. 

Politicising public health a huge concern 

Politicians have never really got it right on COVID-19. They’re quick to announce good news, such as the vaccine rollout or — as of this morning — new jobs and the economic rebound, but don’t acknowledge plans have been continuously thrown into disarray as variants emerge. 

Co-director of health and policy at the University of Sydney’s Brain and Mind Centre Professor Ian Hickie says pretending everything is fine while other parts of the world struggle with Omicron creates tension. 

“The counterfactual is running all the time, and against the background of everything that’s happened over the last two years it becomes harder and harder to reconcile these differences,” he said. 

“Conflicting information is most fear-inducing so, of course, lack of trust in public health messaging is a key concern.” 

Hickie says rather than erring on the side of caution, politicians are focusing on the business messages to help them through the election cycle. 

“It doesn’t work,” he said. “People want to know how the case numbers are going to affect Christmas and the return of school next year with kids still unvaccinated. Close contacts will impact health workers and hospital capacity, and mental health impacts of the pandemic keep rising.” 

Messaging is designed to curb anxiety

CEO of Community Mental Health Australia Bill Gye says although it seems people were enjoying the lift in restrictions, he predicts within the next few days anxiety will rise as events are cancelled and more people become close contacts.

The messages from the media and politicians was important, he says.

While people often come back from the new year feeling ready to tackle new challenges, this was down to groupthink and a social construct over the actual break. 

“Politicians are attempting to shape the emotional state of the populace and to a certain effect that will have an impact,” he said. But it won’t work for everyone: For those with anxiety and depression “there will be a lot of difficulty adapting [to new normal]”. 

What is the new normal?

High case numbers were always to be expected and eased restrictions once regions hit rates of 80% fully vaccinated was in line with Australia’s national plan based on modelling from the Doherty Institute. We need to focus on deaths and hospitalisations over case numbers which so far have remained steady. 

The new normal means people should be combining at-home rapid antigen tests with official PCR tests, maintaining social distancing and good hygiene, getting booster doses on schedule and, soon, taking antiviral pills once they have a confirmed case COVID to reduce the change of developing severe symptoms.

But it also means that as QR codes remain mandatory only for high-risk settings, people will have to alert their social circles if they catch COVID. It also means those who are unvaccinated, either by choice or for health reasons, are at a higher risk.

And the vaccines don’t protect everyone from the virus. The elderly and those with comorbidities are still at risk of developing serious illness.