What’s happening in NSW? The Liberals’ factional civil war explained

Scott Morrison has a NSW problem. Less than a year ago, the ”premier state” was being billed as central to the Coalition’s reelection chances, with the government targeting 10 Labor seats it felt confident of winning.

Now, just months out from an election, the NSW division of the Liberal Party is a shambles. Factional shitfights have meant candidates still haven’t been preselected for key marginal seats and senior ministers face preselection challenges.

Yesterday the prime minister slammed the “childish games” being played between warring factions. But even if Morrison gets his way and the preselection issues are finally resolved, the damage might already be done.

Potential challenges galore

To understand what’s going on we’ve got to start with the factions. Broadly speaking, the NSW Liberals fall into three main groupings: the moderates, which includes former premier Gladys Berejiklian, Treasurer Matt Kean and Minister for Foreign Affairs Marise Payne; the right, led by Premier Dominic Perrottet, and; the centre-right/soft-right, led by Immigration Minister and key Morrison ally Alex Hawke.

At a state level, a tenuous agreement between the moderates and the hard-right, reflected in Perrottet’s relationship with Keane and Berejiklian, helped marginalise the centre-right’s influence. At a federal level, Hawke’s closeness to Morrison gives the faction influence in Canberra. But proximity to an election and the demise of Berejiklian helped erode the factional peace. 

Since last year tensions have simmered over potential challenges to a few sitting MPs, and also over allegations Hawke was leveraging power to filibuster preselections to get preferred centre-right candidates installed.

Meanwhile, the right has been trying to claw its way back.

Hawke, Environment Minister Sussan Ley and moderate North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman all face preselection challenges from conservatives. Ley, who is being challenged by conservative Christian Ellis in her rural seat of Farrer, is particularly vulnerable. 

More tension emerged this year over the push to install Alex Dore, a management consultant and former Young Liberal president in Craig Kelly’s southern Sydney seat of Hughes. Morrison wanted state MP Melanie Gibbons; Perrottet didn’t want another potentially damaging byelection, and local electors didn’t want a blow-in from the other end of town (Dore lives in Manly).

Last week The Australian reported on a contentious backroom deal which would have saved Ley, Hawke and Zimmerman, installed Dore in Hughes, and given the green light for Pentecostal preacher Jemima Gleeson, Morrison’s preferred pick. to run in the marginal seat of Dobell.

That deal was rejected by the state executive 16 votes to seven, and Morrison is threatening federal intervention to save his MPs, much to the anger of many in the NSW party machinery. Any federal intervention could end up in court, adding to the party’s woes.

The undecided seats

The NSW Liberals’ obsession with fighting arcane factional disputes means preselections for key marginal seats are still unresolved. When the most recent deal fell apart, Gleeson pulled out. The Central Coast electorate, held by Labor’s Emma McBride on a 1.5% margin, was a big target for the Liberals.

In Warringah, where the government failed to get former NSW premiers Berejiklian and Mike Baird interested, moderate barrister Jane Buncle pulled out, leaving right-backed Lincoln Parker the only candidate. The Liberals always hoped to recapture the seat after independent Zali Steggall sensationally toppled former prime minister Tony Abbott in 2019. Now an Abbott-lite candidate makes that task more difficult. 

It’s not clear who the party will run in Labor-held Eden-Monaro (0.8%); there’s still no candidate in Parramatta, held by Labor on a 3.5% margin and where MP Julie Owens is retiring; and there’s no replacement for Liberal MP John Alexander in Bennelong (6.9%), or in Greenway, held by Labor on 3.5%.

Since last year, Morrison’s political enemies have dubbed him “the prime minister for NSW”, so great was his perceived favouritism for the state most crucial to his reelection. But the Liberals’ factional debacles and internal politicking might end up sealing his fate.

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