War! Who is it good for? Morrison most likely

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has begun, with his “recognition” of separatist provinces in Ukraine a pretext for dispatching an invasion force to seize at least a significant chunk — and perhaps all — of a country he calls a US colony with a puppet regime.

The unprovoked attack will be a vast tragedy for Ukrainians, and brings the threat of a major land war in Europe to the fore for the first time since World War II. The ripples will reach Australia too, however insignificant they may be compared with the sufferings of Ukrainians.

The immediate impact will be a sharemarket dip and an energy price rise — which will be bad news for motorists but even better news for Australia’s big fossil fuel energy exporters.

Whether it has any ramifications politically remains to be seen. Scott Morrison, who is in deep trouble just weeks from the election, will be desperately hoping it does.

Given neither European countries nor the US intend to provide direct military assistance to Ukraine, and instead will confine themselves to arms, medical equipment, civilian protective equipment and financial assistance (the EU agreed overnight to €1.2 billion in aid before Putin invaded), cherished opportunities for political photo ops with Australian troops will be thin on the ground.

But the more voters’ attention turns to foreign affairs and war, the happier the prime minister will be. For a start, domestic policy is full of problems for the government — aged care, religious discrimination legislation, anti-vax MPs, liberal independents on the warpath in urban seats and real wages falling for workers.

But Morrison is convinced the tradition of voters preferring conservative governments on national security remains true — whether or not his incessant lying about Labor being soft on China has worked — and that Australians will rally to him at a time of global insecurity.

It might also mean that any backbenchers on his side restive enough to contemplate dumping him might think twice about doing so during a moment of serious conflict abroad.

Morrison also has Defence Minister Peter Dutton, who will seize on the conflict to do what he does best — talk tough and rattle sabres, even if there’s no role for Australia to play. Labor’s opposition spokesman on defence, Brendan O’Connor, is solid and experienced, but low profile compared with the man who would be PM.

On the negative, Morrison has the least memorable, lowest-profile foreign affairs minister of the past 30 years in Marise Payne — currently attending the annual Munich Security Conference — who has a much lower profile than Labor’s Penny Wong. Expect Morrison and Dutton to do all the warning of the tsar and announce sanctions even after Payne returns from Europe.

Of more immediate interest for the government is whether China will take advantage of the crisis in relation to either Taiwan or Hong Kong, which will have more immediate, and exploitable, ramifications for a government insistent that Labor is controlled by Beijing, regardless of how closely the government has previously aligned itself with the Xi Jinping regime.

But the first challenge for Morrison will be to announce an adequate and appropriate response to Putin’s aggression — including significant sanctions and the downgrading of diplomatic relations.

Russia’s diplomats should be sent packing as a clear sign that the consequences of invasion will be long term and serious. Given our trade balance with Russia is heavily in our favour, significant sanctions would also signal Australia isn’t prepared to let financial benefit get in the way of responding to aggression.

Anything less than that would make Morrison and Dutton’s hardline talk sound hollow.