Rumours of Morrison’s demise are (almost certainly) greatly exaggerated

Voters have been saying unflattering things about Scott Morrison. But compared with the views of some of his colleagues, they’ve been letting him off lightly.

The prime minister’s leadership is losing fans within his government, and there could be some red hot text message exchanges at the moment among frustrated and perhaps angry government MPs. But speculation of a leadership challenge is taking that discontent too far — certainly just two weeks from an election budget and probably eight weeks from an election.

Nevertheless there is growling about Morrison’s direction. Last month five Liberal MPs crossed the floor to vote against the government on sex discrimination measures, and the NSW branch of the Liberal Party is objecting to Morrison’s preselection instructions.

Also, text messages leaked last month with scarifying appraisals of Morrison by Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce and former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian exposed the vehemence of feelings Morrison has aroused. 

There was this report by Paul Bongiorno in The Saturday Paper at the weekend of a minister organising against his boss:

A senior member of the government — a minister in Morrison’s cabinet — has begun contacting ‘like-minded’ colleagues by email to arrange meetings where they can discuss the crisis. One recipient says: ‘The last time this happened, the leader was toppled.’

This makes the next time the partyroom gets together — at the end of the month for the budget — a potential killing field for the prime minister. ‘Anything could happen,’ one MP said. ‘Stay tuned.’

And this, yesterday, by Dennis Atkins in InQueensland:

According to one seemingly well-sourced report, the man quietly stirring the leadership pot behind the scenes is Pine Rivers MP and Defence Minister Peter Dutton, someone who has never hidden his ambition and works assiduously at building and maintaining his public profile.

Dutton is supposed to be contacting ‘like-minded’ MPs to check in and arrange catch-ups, all aimed at discussing the perilous state of the government’s (and prime minister’s) standing.

However, sad as it might seem for the Coalition, Morrison remains its best chance of retaining government — even as that likelihood appears to diminish.

Any hypothetical challenge would be limited to Defence Minister Peter Dutton or Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. Morrison’s most significant Liberal Party achievement was blocking Dutton’s path to the prime ministership in 2018, and he doesn’t want his record spoiled by the election jitters of colleagues.

The political upheaval of a leadership change would wreck any momentum from the budget, and it is possible Morrison would make his unhappiness at being punted known to all.

He might not go quietly. And up front he would fight the usurpers. Morrison knows what it is like to be sacked, as his pre-politics career shows, and losing the prime ministership would be particularly painful.

In part Morrison can credit forbearance by glum government MPs to Labor’s Kevin Rudd. And Julia Gillard. And Liberals Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. And the decade of the five prime ministerships (Rudd twice).

Rolling a leader is not always electoral suicide. Gillard removed Rudd in June 2010 and went on to win an election she called less than two months later in August.

When Rudd reclaimed his job from her in June 2013, he tried a similar race-to-the-polls gamble with a September election. His second term as prime minister lasted just 83 days; he lost to Tony Abbott.

Abbott was prime minister for just short of two years before being rolled by Turnbull in September 2015. The new PM bolted to an election in July 2016, and despite a victory was dumped by his party in 2018.  

The days of disposable prime ministers seemed to have ended with Morrison succeeding Turnbull and voters appreciate the stability after 11 years of turmoil. He is the longest-serving PM since Rudd defeated John Howard in 2007 — close to four years, including an election victory.

That stability pays a dividend in a period of rotating crises — bushfires to pandemics to floods. But Morrison’s competence in handling crises has been questioned and Labor will highlight his shortcomings in the campaign.

Meanwhile, government MPs will be keenly interested in how their locals rate Morrison, and Newspoll this week provided a indication. A majority of voters told pollsters they don’t think he is likeable, or that he cares for people, that he is arrogant, out of touch with them, and untrustworthy.

In normal times this type of nasty evaluation could force a prime minister to the exit door. But these are not normal times.

Morrison was also said to have vision, experience, and an understanding of the major issues.

The Coalition will have to assess whether these attributes, plus stability and the aggressive political marketing he specialises in, will keep Morrison from being sacked yet again.