The pandemic’s not over. Just ask Xi Jinping

Ready for our first post-pandemic budget? Think we’re all done with the pandemic? Well, the pandemic’s not done with us.

On Monday the oil price fell 7% to 8% and, while it recovered slightly yesterday, is still sitting at around US$107, well down from its price above US$120 at the start of the month.

Why the fall when Russia’s war on Ukraine rages on? Because at the start of the week China revealed a nine-day staggered lockdown of its biggest city, Shanghai, and in doing so revealed the potential for major ructions globally as a result of COVID in China.

President Xi Jinping has insisted that China maintains its zero-COVID strategy for two years. However, Chinese official figures have been based on symptomatic cases, not those who are asymptomatic. It’s been a cute way of making it seem as though Xi’s policy is working.

That was until this week, when the breakdown of national infections numbers started giving prominence to asymptomatic cases, as did reporting by some state media: China Daily resolutely only posts the number of symptomatic cases, but the usually rabid Global Times has been mentioning both figures.

No one in China is talking about a “lockdown” in Shanghai, preferring terms like “partial pause”. But the figures tell the story: 3450 asymptomatic COVID cases were reported in Shanghai last Sunday, accounting for nearly 70% of the nationwide total, along with 50 symptomatic cases. Yesterday the Shanghai figure had reached nearly 6000 cases, part of nearly 9000 infections nationwide, the great majority asymptomatic.

Overnight, Reuters reported, Chinese authorities brought forward the lockdown of the western half of Shanghai, which had not been due to commence until tomorrow.

The original decision to run a two-stage lockdown in Shanghai was made only a day after the government decided against a lockdown, claiming it would be able to test and control the outbreak in the city of more than 25 million.

The Global Times reported Wu Fan, a member of Shanghai’s expert COVID team, told a briefing on Sunday that recent mass testing had found “large-scale” infections throughout the city, triggering the stronger response than outlined on Saturday when the city decided not to lock down.

The outbreak forced Tesla to extend the suspension production at its huge car plant in the city to four days after an initial decision to halt for a day, abandoning the idea of a continuing production in a bubble because it didn’t have enough food supplies. That will see Tesla lose about 1000 cars a day every day the lockdown continues.

There were numerous videos online showing people in the city panic-buying since last Tuesday when the infections started rising rapidly and rumours of lockdown began circulating. Long lines were reported outside food stores and supermarkets.

Shanghai isn’t the only city locked down: Tianjin — which has seen inbound airline passenger cases in the past — and its near-17 million people have been locked down for the past week after being partially locked down in late January. Shenzhen has been locked down in the past month and while it has been eased, there are still restrictions. Tangshan, the country’s steelmaking centre, has been in lockdown for much of the past week and is grappling with continuing outbreaks. Jilin province remains China’s main hotspot, with large areas under lockdown or severe restrictions on movement.

The Global Times report said: “Shanghai’s unique exploration of precisely handling COVID-19 involves ‘the most difficult path’ as it aims to put a stop to viral transmissions while not letting the country’s economic engine lose steam. However, Shanghai’s sudden change of course is also a decision aimed at controlling the virus at minimal cost, said experts, believing that once the curve is flattened, Shanghai will continue to explore a way out, and its experience will be valuable for China as it searches for an exit to the pandemic.”

Tellingly, there’s no mention of the zero-COVID policy of Xi, as there has been in previous reports.

If the lockdown in Shanghai is unsuccessful, or the virus spreads throughout the rest of the country, there will be no disguising or censoring that it is a major failure by Xi. That’s a problem for his plan for a third term as president at the 20th Party Congress in October, and might even be a problem for his continued grip on power.

For countries like Australia which rely so heavily on the health of the Chinese economy regardless of the posturing of our politicians, it will further add to the escalating global uncertainty.