Anyone for a hung Parliament? Too early to call, but signs point to an independently minded House

Newspoll, wow. After a week that we were told was bad, clumsy and borderline fatal for Anthony Albanese, Labor maintained an unchanged 53-47 lead on a two-party-preferred basis. 

Albanese’s own net satisfaction took a battering on the back of his opening-day memory fail and subsequent breathless coverage, falling to a record low of -14. Meanwhile, both major parties suffered drops in their primary vote; Labor fell one point to 36% and the Coalition recording an identical fall to land on 35%. 

With those low primary votes (the Coalition won the last election with 41.4%), the May 21 poll is shaping as a close contest fought on an individual seat level. And with nearly one in three respondents picking a minor party or other, coupled with Albanese’s falling approval rating, a hung Parliament remains a distinct possibility. 

And if that plays out, a handful of crossbench MPs, new or old, could suddenly become political kingmakers.

The current crossbench — Greens Leader Adam Bandt, king of north Queensland Bob Katter, Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie, and independents Zali Steggall, Andrew Wilkie and Helen Haines — are all likely to be returned.

Bandt, who was part of the Gillard-Rudd minority government, has talked up the prospect of holding the balance of power and dragging Labor to the left, to Albanese’s chagrin. By targeting a slew of seats in Melbourne and Brisbane, the Greens hope to expand their influence in the lower house.

Meanwhile, Sharkie, Steggall, Wilkie and Haines have ruled out a formal deal with either party. Katter reckons he could work with either, but his shopping list includes giving guns to schoolkids.

Thanks to the rise of well-funded teal independents in traditionally blue-ribbon Liberal seats, the number of crossbenchers could grow after May 21. So far the polls don’t give us a great sense of which, if any, of them could win. Steggall’s victory over Tony Abbott in Warringah in 2019, a template for a teal victory, was in part energised by the former prime minister’s serially bad vibes.

None of the Liberals being challenged are as obviously divisive as Abbott. So far former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel’s run against Tim Wilson in Goldstein has real momentum. One new poll suggests Monique Ryan could stun Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong. Other challengers — Kylea Tink in North Sydney, Allegra Spender in Wentworth, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar — all believe they’re in with a shot.

The major parties are mainly wishing away the prospect of a hung Parliament. Albanese has repeatedly ruled out forming a coalition government with the Greens, and today said he wouldn’t cut a deal with the teals. We’ll see what happens if Labor winds up on 72 seats. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has so far tentatively left open the door to negotiating with the crossbench.

Despite Albanese’s determination to win a majority in his own right, Labor has a structural advantage in the event of a hung Parliament. The teal challengers, along with key crossbenchers, have all focused their campaigns on stronger climate action and introducing an integrity commission. Despite committing to support for new coalmines, Labor has a more ambitious emissions reduction plan. And while Morrison dumped his federal integrity commission promise, Labor plans to legislate one by the end of the year.

Still, teals are targeting affluent, traditionally conservative electorates. But both Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor were former Nationals, representing classic National seats, who propped up the Gillard government.

In 2010, 17 days passed between election night and Oakeshott and Windsor’s marathon press conference to announce their support for Labor. If the major parties continue to lose undecided voters, we could face a similarly tense period of post-election limbo.