Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese in Perth, Monday, May 16, 2022 (Image: AAP/Lukas Coch)

Three days to go. Finally, Labor’s deceptively comfortable-looking lead in the opinion polls has started to narrow in the final days, even though around 15% of eligible voters have already cast their ballots early. 

All this means is we’re in for a long night this Saturday, with the result turning on a handful of key marginal seats. Here is where the election will be won and lost:

Labor targets

These are some of the Coalition’s most marginal seats, and if Labor doesn’t win them, forming government will be a real struggle. Both parties have poured resources into Bass in Northern Tasmania (Lib +0.4%), the government’s tightest.

Labor would hope to pick up the Sydney seat of Reid (Lib +3.2%), especially after Liberal MP Fiona Martin’s shocker last week. Boothby, in Adelaide, has been held by the Liberals since the 1940s, but with a 1.4% margin, and local member Nicolle Flint retiring, Labor is quietly confident. 

In Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, ultra-marginal Chisholm (Lib +0.5%) has been hard fought by both sides. Labor is also eyeing gains over in Western Australia, with Swan (Lib + 3.2%) and Pearce (Lib + 5.2%) the most likely. 

Heading further up the target list, Labor has been eyeing off Robertson on the NSW Central Coast (Lib +4.2%). Last week’s YouGov seat-by-seat poll had that as an opposition gain, along with the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Higgins (Lib +3.7%), where Labor is growing optimistic. There’s also a sense of momentum in Bennelong, held on a 6.9% margin, where popular local MP John Alexander is retiring.

Braddon in Northern Tasmania (Lib + 3.1%) should be a Labor target, but voters in that part of the country have been notoriously chaotic. And if there is a big swing on in the West, Labor could unseat the Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt in Hasluck (Lib + 5.9%).

What’s missing from this picture is Queensland, where Labor was battered so hard in 2019 that some strategists on both sides concede no seats could change hands. Labor’s most likely gains could be leafier urban seats like Brisbane (LNP + 4.9%) and Ryan (LNP + 6.0%). The Coalition’s most marginal Queensland seat is Longman in Brisbane’s outer suburbs, held on a 3.3% margin. If all goes very well for Labor, the Far North Queensland seat of Leichhardt (LNP + 4.2%) could be in play. Flynn, in Central Queensland coal country is an even longer shot on 8.7%.

The Coalition targets 

Today, Prime Minister Scott Morrison visited the Geelong seat of Corangamite (Lab + 1.0%) for the third time this campaign. It’s an electorate that’s key to Morrison’s strategy of targeting electorates in outer suburbs and regional centres to offset projected losses elsewhere.

Parramatta, in Sydney’s west, has also gotten plenty of attention, and the combination of a 3.5% margin, and controversy around Labor’s captain’s pick Andrew Charlton, a white eastern suburbs blow-in, could give the Liberals a leg-up.

The government hopes the Andrew Constance factor could help them win Gilmore (Lab + 2.6%) on the NSW South Coast. And both Morrison and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce have been targeting the vast Northern Territory seat of Lingiari (Lab + 5.5%).

Some in the Labor camp have been getting a little antsy about Lyons in Tasmania, held on a 5.2% margin. The Liberals have also talked up their chances in outer-Melbourne suburban seats of McEwen (Lab 5.3%) and Hawke (notionally Labor), with a bit of help from an anti-Dan Andrews backlash and United Australia Party primary votes.

Then there’s coal country. Joyce has largely been tasked with targeting Hunter (Lab 3%). The other structural problem for Labor is it has four times as many seats on a margin of under 3% than the Liberals. Places like Cowan in WA, Blair, Lilley and Moreton in Queensland, and Greenway and Eden-Monaro in NSW have all flown under the radar this election, but could be vulnerable.

The teal threat

One of the biggest election wildcards is the teal independents, threatening the Liberals in parts of their traditional heartland. There’s a broad view across the spectrum that at least one or two could win, but no consensus about who and where.

The biggest shock would be Treasurer Josh Frydenberg losing Kooyong to Monique Ryan (Lib + 6.4%). Staying in Melbourne, the fight between Zoe Daniel and Liberal backbencher Tim Wilson for Goldstein (Lib +  7.8%) will be tight. 

Despite a 9.3% margin, Trent Zimmerman faces a three-way battle with Labor’s Catherine Renshaw and independent Kylea Tink in North Sydney. Dave Sharma is struggling to hold off Allegra Spender in Wentworth, where he got a 1.3% margin over another independent, Kerryn Phelps, last time. Mackellar on the Northern Beaches (Lib 13.2%) could be close.

And in WA, latest polling gives Kate Chaney a real shot at winning Julie Bishop’s old seat of Curtin (Lib +13.2%).