As Russian gas cut-offs upend European energy security, the continent is struggling to cope with what experts say is one of its worst-ever energy crises — and it could still get much worse.
For months European leaders have been haunted by the prospect of losing Russia’s natural gas supply, which accounts for about 40% of European imports and has been a crucial energy lifeline for the continent. That nightmare is now becoming a painful reality as Moscow slashes its flows in retaliation for Europe’s support for Ukraine, dramatically increasing energy prices and forcing many countries to resort to emergency plans, and as backup energy suppliers such as Norway and North Africa are failing to step up.
“This is the most extreme energy crisis that has ever occurred in Europe,” said Alex Munton, an expert on global gas markets at Rapidan Energy Group, a consultancy. “Europe [is] looking at the very real prospect of not having sufficient gas when it’s most needed, which is during the coldest part of the year.”
“Prices have shot through the roof,” added Munton, who noted that European natural gas prices — nearly $50 per MMBTu — have eclipsed US price rises by nearly tenfold: “That is an extraordinarily high price to be paying for natural gas, and really there is no immediate way out from here.”
Many officials and energy experts worry that the crisis will only deepen after Nord Stream 1, the largest gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, is taken down for scheduled maintenance this week. Although the pipeline is supposed to be under repair for only 10 days, the Kremlin’s history of energy blackmail and weaponisation has stoked fears that Moscow won’t turn it back on — leaving heavily reliant European countries in the lurch.
(Russia’s second pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 2, was killed in February as Russian President Vladimir Putin prepared to invade Ukraine, leaving Nord Stream 1 as the biggest direct gas link between Russia and Europe’s biggest economy.)
“Everything is possible. Everything can happen,” German Economy Minister Robert Habeck told Deutschlandfunk on Saturday. “It could be that the gas flows again, maybe more than before. It can also be the case that nothing comes.”
That would spell trouble for the upcoming winter, when demand for energy surges and having sufficient natural gas is necessary for heating. European countries typically rely on the summer months to refill their gas storage facilities. And at a time of war, when the continent’s future gas supply is uncertain, having that energy cushion is especially crucial.
If Russia’s prolonged disruptions continue, experts warn of a difficult winter: one of potential rationing, industrial shutdowns, and even massive economic dislocation. British officials who just a few months ago warned of soaring power bills for consumers are now warning of even worse.
Europe could face a “winter of discontent”, said Helima Croft, a managing director at RBC Capital Markets. “Rationing, industrial shut-ins — all of that is looming.”
Unrest has already been brewing, with strikes erupting across the continent as households struggle under the pressures of spiralling costs of living and inflationary pressures. Some of this discontent has also had knock-on effects in the energy market. In Norway, the European Union’s biggest supplier of natural gas after Russia, mass strikes in the oil and gas industries last week forced companies to shutter production, sending further shockwaves throughout Europe.
European countries are at risk of descending into “very, very strong conflict and strife because there is no energy”, Frans Timmermans, the vice-president of the European Commission, told The Guardian. “Putin is using all the means he has to create strife in our societies, so we have to brace ourselves for a very difficult period.”
The pain of the crisis, however, is perhaps being felt most clearly in Germany, which has been forced to turn to a number of energy-saving measures, including rationing heated water and closing swimming pools. To cope with the crunch, Berlin has already entered the second phase of its three-stage emergency gas plan; last week it also moved to bail out its energy giants that have been financially slammed by Russian cut-offs.
But it’s not just Germany. “This is happening all across Europe,” said Olga Khakova, an expert on European energy security at the Atlantic Council, who noted that France has also announced plans to nationalise the EDF power company as it buckles under mounting economic losses. “The challenging part is how much can these governments provide in support to their energy consumers, to these companies? And what is that breaking point?”
The situation has also complicated many countries’ climate goals. In late June, Germany, Italy, Austria and the Netherlands announced they would restart old coal power plants as they grapple with shrinking supplies.
The potential outcomes that European nations are grappling with reveal how this crisis is occurring on a scale that has only been seen in times of war, Munton said. In the worst-case scenario, “we’re talking about rationing gas supplies, and this is not something that Europe has had to contend with in any other time than the wartime,” he said. “That’s essentially where things have got to now. This is an energy war.”
They also underscore the long and painful battle that Europe will continue to face in weaning itself off Russian gas.
Despite the continent’s eagerness to leave Moscow’s supply behind, experts say Europe will likely remain trapped in this spiralling crisis until it can develop the infrastructure for greater energy independence — and that could take years. US gas, shipped by tanker, is one option, but that requires new terminals to receive the gas. New pipelines take even longer to build — and there isn’t a surfeit of eligible suppliers.
“It’s very, very difficult for Europe to unwind its reliance on Russian gas on anything other than a three- to five-year view. Gas projects just don’t get built that fast,” said James Henderson, an energy expert at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “Bringing new projects online is just going to take a significant amount of time, so it’s not something that’s going to go away.”
Until then, European leaders will continue to scramble to secure enough supplies — and can only hope for mild weather. The “worst-case scenario is people having to choose between eating and heating come winter”, Croft said.
What did Europe expect? They have placed heavy sanctions on Russia.
Did they expect Russia not to retaliate, and play “nice guy”?
Did they expect Russia to say “sorry we shouldn’t have invaded Ukraine”, and walk away?
The sanctions imposed on Russia are having a bigger knock on impact on Europe, and other Western Countries than they are having on Russia.
“To every Action there is an equal and opposite Action”
None of the EU – dependent on Russia for energy, food and minerals among much else – would have had this mad policy of sanctions without extreme pressure & arm twisting from the USA.
This is the proxy war planned, after the roaring successes of Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, and brought to fruition in 2014.
The Trump interregnum delayed it but now it’s back to business as usual and their business is war, almost the only remaining industry since the neolibs shipped off manufacturing to China.
Energy blackmail? The EU expects Russia to provide them with gas for free? If Gazprom can’t actually receive payment (or use that payment) does the EU expect them to give it away? 100% the EU’s own fault for weaponising currency.
Take warning that this is what the gas industry can do to nations that try to stamp it out. Germany was once confident of converting to a 100% renewable economy, even to the point of condemning all its nuclear plants. Only now are German citizens discovering that less than half their energy supply is renewables, and the rest is coal, nuclear (yes), – and gas. No doubt the good citizens want to get rid of coal and nuclear, but that will only achieve an even greater dependence on gas. Here, we would say we need something for still, dark periods, but in Germany they know they need something for the cold, still, dark German winter.
Admit it, we don’t have plans for the extermination of gas. We would rather cheat on the kiddies then admit we have a challenge to master. The gas industry will have us lying to our back teeth rather than let us find an alternative.
At that condemns all the policy makers and planners as frauds and cowards.
Policy makers and planners are guided by the elected leaders of the day, who in turn are limited by noisy public opinion. That is unless they show leadership, which the ALP failed to show in the last election. If the Teals propose to put nuclear in the mix, would the ALP show leadership by voting with them?
Policy makers are, by definition, the elected leaders. Then those leaders guide planners.
I grew up in the north of England in a stone house with no heating to speak of and zero insulation. My bedroom ceiling would have frost on it all through the winter. That was normal back in the 50’s. So if they ban central heating their problem would be solved and they would all survive and blanket sales would be up. Bunch of sooks. We like to be comfortable, but we don’t need it.
When I was kid we used to sit in the kitchen where there was a wood stove. The rest of the house was basically below freezing in winter. We used to heat bricks in the oven, wrap them in a blanket and take them to bed at night to keep warm.
So, Europe’s population is now about 450 million. That’s a sh*t load of forest you’d having to burn to keep warm. Not to mention the pollution. Just saying.
The Continent is DoA – it just hasn’t stopped moving yet due to the necrotic worms feasting on the carcase.
Despite an enlightened social compact, the physical depredations of the past, environmental, fiscal and ecological ensure that it cannot support half of its current population.
Britain may survive in some recognisable form as it is still an island of coal in a sea of fish but lacks the social cohesion thanks to MrsT’s mad destruction of education, unions, industry and turning a nation of shopkeepers into baristas.
If only Britain had the Euro social system (emerging pre1979) and its fortunate location, off the edge of the garhering washed by the Gulf Stream (already faltering) it would be fun, for a while, to watch it trying to build a wall along its east coast – La Manche needs to be a lot wider.
Over vast areas of England in the 70s unknowable miles of hedgerows were ripped out to enable larger agricultural machinery to operate on the pocket handkerchief size fields so it’s now difficult even to go a’gathering sticks for winter fu-el oh – forget the Yuletide log.-
Poaching was never just about killing the local lord’s grouse or pheasant but also wood for fuel.
Scotland was denuded of people & trees for sheep centuries ago which prevents regrowth and the only large areas trees now are sitka spruce pine plantations.
Wales & Cornwall suffered least from hedgerow ripping because of their topography but a certain big-eared scion of nobility owns much of the latter.
All the shocking legacy of the stupidity of ignoring the need to transition away from fossil fuels over the last 30 years. Every government over that period stands accused of that crime. And whilst it is obviously necessary to find alternative sources of gas and coal in the short to medium term, it would be just doubly down on inanity by fast-tracking new fossil fuel projects rather than massively accelerating the crucially urgent investment needed in renewables and storage.
Ever the optimist, perhaps a crisis of this magnitude was always necessary to save the earth from corporate greed and government incompetence and cowardice in the face of the climate emergency.
The world has a problem . . . instability! Nature has simply joined forces, reminded us of enough . . . stupidity! Fortunately humanity is pretty good at . . . adaptability!. Let’s get on with it (thank or curse Putin) for there is a ‘no going back’ option. The Universe, of which we are a microscopic part, never intimidated by Economics or even Politics?
If only all of the money that’s been spent on wars over energy over all the years had been invested into alternative energy……..imagine.