Keep an eye on the Keystone State: Pennsylvania is your guide to the US midterm elections

Monday was Labor Day in the United States. Officially designated to honour American workers and the union movement, the federal holiday also marks the unofficial end of summer and the start of the two-month campaign sprint to November’s elections. This year, control of Congress is on the ballot, as well as 36 governors’ mansions and 88 of 99 state legislative chambers across the country. With so much in play, it can be hard to keep track of it all. One state serves as a handy reference: Pennsylvania, the Keystone State. Early voting in Pennsylvania commences September 19.

Pennsylvania is the fifth-most populous state in the Union, with 13 million residents — half as many as Australia. The state’s demographics reflect America’s changing make-up, as younger generations expand its diversity.

Philadelphia, its leading city and the sixth largest in the US, was the nation’s first capital. Pittsburgh, the state’s second-biggest city, once produced one-third of America’s steel. Other dominant industries such as coal, textiles and timber have yielded to finance, business services, education and medical research. Advanced manufacturing remains buoyant. This mirrors the economic evolution in similar rust belt states.

However, not everyone has shared in the new prosperity. Average household income sits in the middle of the national pack, but skews in favour of the big cities. Many families struggle to make ends meet.

All this makes Pennsylvania fertile ground for the divisions roiling America. In 2016, Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to carry the state since George H W Bush in 1988. He won by a razor-thin margin of 44,292 votes from more than 6 million cast, less than 1% of the total. In 2020 Joe Biden flipped the result, winning by 80,555 votes.

The forthcoming poll will test whether Trump’s MAGA message still resonates, or if Biden’s efforts to rebuild the middle class are taking root. It will also demonstrate whether the Supreme Court’s repeal of Roe v Wade triggered a decisive pivot in American politics, as the majority of mainstream voters unite to reject extremist policies.

US Senate

Befitting Pennsylvania’s fine margins, Democrats and Republicans hold one Senate seat apiece. Republican Senator Pat Toomey is retiring after two terms in office. The candidates competing to replace him are Pennsylvania’s Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, and Mehmet Oz, who shot to fame as Dr Oz on The Oprah Winfrey Show, before helming his own TV slot for 13 years until he wrapped up last January.

The race represents a clash of characters, styles and substance. Fetterman, known for his trademark uniform of shorts and hoodie, stands out at 6’8” tall. He began his political career by winning election to be mayor of Braddock, a former steel town down on its luck, where he worked to lure new businesses to regenerate the local economy. He has the town’s zip code 15104 tattooed on his left arm, with the dates of nine murders committed in Braddock during his tenure on his right arm. He champions higher wages, universal health care, and marijuana legalisation.

Oz, a cardiothoracic surgeon, courted controversy during his television career by promoting dodgy medical treatments and peddling quack remedies. He was an early proponent of hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, to treat COVID-19 infection. Multiple studies by public health experts have dismissed this advice and raised concerns that serious side effects may harm patients.

Oz won his primary contest on the back of endorsement by Trump, and has embraced the MAGA agenda with gusto. Once pro-choice, he is now avidly anti-abortion. A former proponent of gun safety measures, he now poses with guns as props in his campaign materials. Flip-flops are standard MAGA practice.

But what has raised most eyebrows is that Oz claims to have moved to Pennsylvania in late 2020, after living in neighbouring New Jersey for decades. This opportunism has tagged Oz as a carpetbagger, and Fetterman’s campaign team has driven the point home. Meanwhile, in May Fetterman had a stroke caused by an irregular heartbeat. He underwent surgery to have a pacemaker implanted, and is projected to make a full recovery.

Recent polls show Fetterman leading Oz by eight points.

US House of Representatives

In 2012 Republicans won 13 of Pennsylvania’s 18 House seats, with five going to the Democrats. This was despite the GOP receiving fewer votes statewide than their opponents. Key to their victory was sophisticated gerrymandering that maximised their gains by redrawing electoral boundaries in their favour following the 2010 national census. Republicans maintained their 13-5 majority in 2014 and 2016. However, in January 2018 the Pennsylvania Supreme Court threw out the Republicans’ map for violating the state constitution, and redrew it. Together with the Democrats’ blue wave in the 2018 midterms, this levelled representation at 9-9. This balance was unchanged in 2020.

Following the 2020 national census, congressional districts were again reapportioned, with the state’s Supreme Court having the final say. One seat was eliminated due to national population shifts, leaving 17 to be contested this fall.

Democrats hold a slender four-seat majority in the House of Representatives. Since the party holding the White House typically loses seats in the midterms, analysts have spent the past 18 months assuming a Republican takeover in November. If Democrats are to buck that historical trend, Pennsylvania is a must-win battleground for them. Races to watch include the 7th and 8th Districts with Democratic incumbents in rematches against their 2018 opponents, and the open 17th District, which is one of the tightest contests in the country.

Governor

Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf is term-limited after eight years in office. Running to replace him are state Attorney General Josh Shapiro for the Democrats and state Senator Doug Mastriano for the Republicans. Mastriano is Trump’s chosen candidate. While Oz has undergone a MAGA makeover, Mastriano is a true believer.

A fervent Christian nationalist, Mastriano has called for an end to the separation between church and state. He supports a total abortion ban, with no exceptions for rape or incest. He spouts QAnon conspiracy theories and doomsday rhetoric. He parrots the Big Lie about the 2020 election. Since the governor appoints the secretary of state to administer the state’s elections, this is a red flag for those who fear Republican election interference in 2024.

Further underscoring his anti-democratic credentials, Mastriano attended Trump’s January 6 rally and breached police barriers at the Capitol, although he denies entering the building. He has drawn criticism for his links to white supremacists and militia groups. He paid US$5000 to Gab, a neo-Nazi social media site, for campaign consulting. A photo of him wearing a Confederate Army uniform in a faculty portrait at the Army War College has elevated scrutiny of his white supremacist sympathies.

Shapiro has focused on bread-and-butter issues including crime and public safety, jobs, education, the environment and racial equity. As with Democrats nationwide, he is also advocating for protection of women’s reproductive rights and the need to safeguard democracy. Multiple prominent Pennsylvania Republicans have crossed party lines to endorse Shapiro, including former homeland security secretary Michael Chertoff. They have described Mastriano as “an extremist who is a threat to the rule of law and the constitutional order”.

Recent polls indicate Shapiro holds a seven-point advantage over Mastriano.

Dobbs

The Supreme Court ruled on Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization on June 24, 2022. What MAGA Republicans would once have considered their generation’s crowning achievement has fast become a Pyrrhic victory. For 50 years Republican voters, the majority of whom support abortion rights, contented themselves that Roe v Wade would never be repealed, despite Republican officials’ fiery language and erosion of access to abortion services. So they ignored the fanatics and stuck with their party.

Dobbs ended this charade. In a stunning shift, women across America have been registering to vote in droves. Young women are particularly enthusiastic. They refuse to stand by while Republicans wind back the clock and relegate them to second-class citizens. This has already led to surprise results in a Kansas referendum and several House byelections. It contributed to the win last week by the first Democrat to represent Alaska in 50 years. Native American Mary Peltola defeated Sarah Palin for the seat.

Pennsylvania is no exception. New female voter registrations have outpaced males by 12 percentage points since June 24. Four Democrats are joining the rolls for every Republican. In a bellwether state, this could tip the scales.

Last week Joe Biden, who was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and spent his first 10 years there, returned to the Keystone State to deliver a primetime address in front of Independence Hall, where both the Declaration of Independence and the constitution were signed. His speech called out MAGA extremists and the threat they pose to American democracy. He urged Democrats, independents and mainstream Republicans to turn back their assault at the ballot box.

Pennsylvania is key to that end. Keep this in mind on November 8.