A tide of extremists rises as 33 million Pakistanis inundated by floodwaters plead for help 

As devastating floods and a political crisis grip Pakistan, it now faces the rise of extremists posing as charities to offer aid and potentially recruit followers in flood-affected regions.

Experts and journalists report a revival of banned jihadist extremist groups after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, and they’re targeting desperate communities. 

So far they make up a tiny fraction of those delivering aid to the region, and their influence is small. But amid rising anti-American ideology and as Pakistanis blame wealthy, high-emissions nations for the floods, there’s a risk more will be swept up in extremism — potentially causing further instability.

Desperate for help 

The number of Pakistanis affected by the floods is greater than Australia and New Zealand’s populations combined. While aid groups work around the clock to deliver life-saving supplies, the sheer scale of the floods makes reaching everyone impossible — and those affected are desperate for help.

Taha Siddiqui is a Pakistani journalist who has been living in Paris in exile since 2018 after an attempted abduction by the Pakistani army. He spent time with banned extremist group ​​Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and 2010 floods as it delivered aid, and continues to monitor it, finding it’s experiencing a revival led by jailed chief Hafiz Saeed’s son Hafiz Talha Saeed. 

“Whenever natural disasters happen … these groups of military networks come out in large numbers to provide relief and rescue,” he told Crikey. 

He said social media posts showed members boasting that despite being banned by the Pakistan government, they’d come back in full force.

Siddiqui pointed to photos that allegedly show LeT members have sewn a new organisation’s name — Allahu Akbar Tehreek — over yellow vests. “They’re operating under that name, and they’re glorifying all these convicted people,” he said. LeT has previously operated under the names Jamaat ud Dawa and Falah e Insaniat Foundation.

Siddiqui asked LeT members why they delivered aid across the 2010 floods. “They said when the flood water recedes, they’ll come back to these families and remind them of the help. Usually families will dedicate one child to the cause.”

Siddiqui asked what the “cause” was and was told “the cause of Allah” — a euphemism in this context, he said, to mean jihadism.

The country was primed for extremism, with the current school curriculum and ongoing political narratives creating a “narrow sense” of Pakistani identity.

“Pakistan is a country which wants its population to be radicalised enough so that they can back the security state run by the military,” he said. “A policy where people are Islamically radicalised is good for them because that helps them not just on the strategic front on regional conflicts, but also internally erases any ethnic differences … by unifying the country with angry Islam. But it always ends up backfiring.” 

Using charity to spread ideology isn’t uncommon: Saudi nationals funded Islamic charities implicated in terrorism in Bosnia in 1992; al-Qaeda laundered money through charitable organisations before 9/11; terrorist groups posed as charities to raise funds during the 2012 Syrian crisis.

Lowy Institute Fellow Rodger Shanahan told Crikey multinational charities had strict regimes to ensure funding wasn’t siphoned off, but smaller charities could use funding to further the aims of particular groups.

“Humanitarian assistance [can be used] as a way of getting through the door before trying to put forward a more radical message,” he said.

Anger rising over climate inaction

The floods which have affected 33 million people in regions receiving nearly three times the average annual rainfall have been blamed on climate change. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called it a “climate catastrophe” during a visit to affected regions last week, warning the world to “stop sleepwalking toward the destruction of our planet by climate change”. 

Pakistani officials have also said the disaster is a direct result of climate change and are pushing for rich countries to pay reparation for the impact of 200 years of development, industrialisation and emissions. Pakistan contributes less than 1% of the global greenhouse gas emissions yet is one of the countries most affected by climate change. 

Save the Children Pakistan director Muhammad Khuram Gondal told Crikey awareness of climate change — and who to blame — was spreading to every corner of the country.

“Historically we have not faced it and the understanding of the masses was not that strong,” he said. “But now it’s being talked at the media channels as well in the local languages … that understanding is getting stronger by the day. Perhaps there will be an outburst of anger among people, that this is something we never deserved and are not responsible for. The anger may develop more and more.” 

Guterres’ visit had raised expectations the world would help Pakistan: “The expectations of Pakistani people have been raised … that the aid and the support was going to come in appropriation with the damages.”

Militants thrive in political instability

Pakistan is in the grips of a political crisis, said director of the Centre for Muslim States and Societies and professor of political science and international relations at the University of Western Australia Samina Yasmeen. After former prime minister Imran Khan was ousted in April this year, Yasmeen said the country had a government “bordering on ineffectual”. 

“The ability of the law enforcement agencies, especially the police, to monitor extremist groups is limited,” she said. “Even the military is being targeted by Khan … which opens up the space for militant groups like Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP).”

TTP is an alliance of militant networks unified against the Pakistan military which has pledged allegiance to the Afghan Taliban.

“The needs of the poor people are really being ignored. People are dissatisfied,” she said.

But she stressed the new government had taken steps against extremism and was attempting to be removed from the international financial watchdog’s Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Greylist, which monitors whether countries are abetting and financing terrorist activities. Being greylisted affects International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts.

“The government is being careful to do whatever it can to show they are different now to what they were at the turn of the new millennium,” Yasmeen said. Recent statements and arrest warrants for extremist figures showed the government wanted to change its tune.

But community response is another thing. Khan’s anti-American narrative is popular; two-thirds of Pakistanis say they consider the US to be an enemy rather than a friend. Yasmeen said there was a mixed response to anti-Americanism and anti-capitalism — and people were more likely to focus on accepting help than pointing fingers. 

“That doesn’t mean militants won’t take any space, but they’re just one sector [providing aid],” she said. “It’s not going to suddenly become Pakistan of the late 1990s again.

“But the floods would definitely play a role in making people rethink.”