On the home stretch

HOME ECONOMICS

Australian house prices will fall 11% by mid next year, and by up to 20% by the end of 2024, the Reserve Bank of Australia says. It will be the largest hit to the property market since the early ’80s and strip billions from households, the SMH reports, but on the plus side, more Australians could become first-time homeowners. It’ll come as our economy is headed for a rude shock next year, The Australian ($) reports, with inflation and the global turmoil seeing 3.25% GDP growth in 2022-23 before falling to a measly 1.5% in 2023-24 (a full point lower than April’s forecasts). Why? Weaker household spending driven by the high cost of living, the AFR says. But we’re not headed for a domestic recession like the UK, Europe, US and China probably are, Treasurer Jim Chalmers swears — to that end, he’s promised a “responsible”, “sensible” budget this week.

So what are we in for? Chalmers says we’ll save $10 billion in the “rorts and waste” audit, Guardian Australia continues, mostly Morrison-era projects. It’ll see things like the Monash rail project and the Wellington Road upgrade (in former education minister Alan Tudge’s electorate) on the chopping block, as well as $2 billion repurposed from the Coalition grants program — that’s stuff like the Building Better Region Fund and the Commuter Carparks Fund, the AFR adds. Interestingly, the ADF is getting $1.17 billion for new recruits in the budget, NT News says, and will begin a grassroots campaign in schools and universities and across social media. But the government is tightening the belt more broadly — with a $3.6 billion cut to external labour, government advertising, travel and legal expenses, which comes as MP Bob Katter has taken the crown for claiming more taxpayer-funded Comcar services than any other minister or backbench MP in the last quarter, Guardian Australia reports — some $35,000.

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RATS. SINKING. SHIP.

It just got harder for NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet to win the state election. NSW Transport Minister David Elliott will quit politics at the March state election after being edged out by internal factional Perrottet rivals, the SMH reports. He joins other outgoing pollies including Infrastructure Minister Rob Stokes and Customer Service Minister Victor Dominello. But the former army captain isn’t bitter, telling the paper his “days of throwing spears” are over because when you leave politics you need more friends than enemies. One anonymous Liberal said it was bad news for Perrottet — more “internal turmoil” making preselections riskier.

Elliott certainly got his fair share of headlines — in 2019, he was accused of grabbing a teen in a minor collision with his car, Guardian Australia reports, and declaring he worked for the cops (not quite: he was police minister), though an investigation cleared Elliott. As the emergency services minister, Elliott also came under fire for going on an overseas holiday during the Black Summer bushfires, as the SMH reports (he turned around at Heathrow Airport). Then in February this year, Elliott famously went to bed the night before Sydney’s infamous train shutdown, the AFR reports, while his department was still debating the decision.

RINEHEARTLESS

Billionaire Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has pulled its $15 million sponsorship from Netball Australia (NA). It comes after some Diamonds players objected to the possibility of branding being splashed across their uniforms — Indigenous player Donnell Wallam, in particular, was uncomfortable considering Rinehart’s father, Lang Hancock, made terrible comments about sterilising Indigenous peoples in an ’80s documentary. After pulling the funding, Hancock Prospecting’s statement was fairly strongly worded — it said the sponsorship would’ve generously boosted the wages of players, and that it was “unnecessary” for sport to be used for social or political causes: “There are more targeted and genuine ways to progress social or political causes without virtue signalling or for self-publicity.” Somewhat ironically, Hancock Prospecting very publicly donated $1 million to a telethon hours later, which raised a new record of $71.4 million overall, as The West Australian ($) reports.

Netball Australia’s Players Association boss Kathryn Harby-Williams said it was a major shock, and that everyone was extremely disappointed, news.com.au reports. Harby-Williams reckons everyone was fine to wear the logo during the Constellation Cup, just not during the three-match series against England. WA Premier Mark McGowan urged Rinehart to reconsider it as her decision also saw WA-based team West Coast Fever lose a $2 million sponsorship deal from her company Roy Hill, Perth Now reports. McGowan says “reconciliation” could see the deal go ahead. But Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he hopes someone else will step up to sponsor NA, saying netball was an important sport in the country. NA has four months to sort it out before the funding is pulled.

ON A LIGHTER NOTE

It’s 1932 in the harsh expanse of Western Australia, and armed soldiers hardened by their service in World War I are preparing to face off with another, much more unpredictable foe: the emu. Some 20,000 of the flightless birds had been snacking on local crops, much to the ire of farmers, and the defence minister Sir George Pearce had declared military might was the only way. The soldiers dutifully trekked into the scrubland, but the emus were precision-trained in guerilla tactics, immediately scarpering and disorienting the soldiers. Their bullets seem to just bounce off the prehistoric birds — one incredulous soldier later wrote: “They can face machine guns with the invulnerability of tanks.” It quickly became clear the mission was futile, a failure, and the shamefaced soldiers retreated, embedding within Australian lore forever the Great Emu War — the emus recorded as history’s official victor (they really are). But did we have the world’s second-largest bird all wrong all this time?

Raspberry farmer Craig Woods thinks so. Eight years ago, Woods brought home a fluffy mob of emu chicks to raise as pets on his acreage, a chemical-free operation that uses only solar power. His lifelong fascination with the birds was rewarded with a special bond with one in the brood, Einstein the Emu, an amber-eyed guy who wants a little cuddle from Woods each morning. And Woods has no problem with that. The emus turned out to be an incredible asset on his environmentally friendly farm, he tells the ABC, eating their body weight in insects to keep the balance just right. When a locust plague tore through a few years ago, he popped the emus into a paddock and the peckish birds just “cleaned them up”. Forget man’s best friend — Woods reckons emus can be imprinted on cattle, sheep and chickens to become some sort of beady-eyed security guards, once even chasing a bloodthirsty fox right through the paddock with their razor-sharp talons. The emus, it seems, are not to be trifled with — even the cuddly ones.

Wishing you the acumen of a victorious emu this morning.

SAY WHAT?

If I want to speak to the decision-makers, I got to spend time in Brisbane. If you think a North Queenslander wants to spend one single day in Brisbane, you’d be deadly wrong.

Bob Katter

After the federal MP was grilled over claiming $35,000 worth of travel expenses in one quarter, Katter responded that it brings him no joy to travel to the state’s capital city of Brisbane.

CRIKEY RECAP

Rush to judge or judged for rushing: does jury deliberation time predict a conviction outcome?

Amber Schultz

Oct 21, 2022

“It’s not an easy case, with the whole of Australia watching and waiting — and it makes sense they’d take their time in reaching a decision. They must reach a unanimous verdict.

“But the phrase ‘it’s not looking good’ gets tossed around every time a jury takes longer than a day to consider an outcome, with many believing the more time a jury takes, the more likely they are to acquit the accused. Research from the US has found there may be some truth to this …”

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Medicare is broken — but there is more to the story

Luke Slawomirski

Oct 21, 2022

18

“The third problem is a lack of transparency and data. Medicare does not collect any systematic information on outcomes — how patients fare over time. To be fair, not many health systems do. Providers, therefore, have no way of knowing how their practice compares to their peers.

“Couple this with protections of patient confidentiality and you realise why only a slim majority adhere to best practice, or why we see a 50-fold variation between demographically similar postcodes. For a profession claiming to be scientific, this attitude towards scrutiny is highly unscientific.”

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Adam Bandt undermined by terrible misjudgments across the Greens

Bernard Keane

Oct 21, 2022

80

“This is twice now that Bandt’s office has stuffed up on a sensitive issue involving Thorpe. The Atkinson matter was embarrassing for a party that likes to take the high ground on parliamentary behaviour. The non-disclosure regarding Thorpe is worse.

“The Greens have complained for years that they’re not permitted to join the joint standing committee on intelligence and security. This has handed the major parties an excuse to never even consider adding a Green. Greens party members and other MPs and senators must be pulling their hair out about the way the party has stumbled from one stuff-up to the next since a hugely successful election.”

READ ALL ABOUT IT

How multicultural is your suburb? (SBS)

China’s Xi secures third term, stacks leadership team with allies (Al Jazeera)

Salman Rushdie lost sight in one eye following attack, agent says (Reuters)

Boris Johnson tries to win support for comeback bid, as Sunak enters race to be Britain’s next prime minister (CNN)

Turkey’s Erdogan proposes a referendum on right to wear headscarf (EuroNews)

Death toll in Sudan tribal clashes rises to at least 220 (Al Jazeera)

Hurricane Roslyn batters Mexico’s Pacific coast (BBC)

THE COMMENTARIAT

Journalists shun inconvenient news stories on the environment — Chris Mitchell (The Australian) ($): “Newsroom rounds have changed so much during the digital age that many reporters now only write what their audience wants to hear. The change is profound in environment journalism. Once a great environment writer such as the late Brian Woodley, from this paper, would have excellent contacts in the conservation movement, but would also have relationships of trust with industry. Such rounds-people could write stories critical of companies doing the wrong thing but also take account of jobs and development priorities. They could write favourably of some environmental campaigns but criticise misleading ones.

“Today environment lobby groups own the opinions of too many environment writers. It’s the same in other areas such as education, where reporters are beholden to the teacher unions, or immigration and asylum seeker news, where immigration lawyers and asylum seeker advocates dominate coverage. Partly this reflects the relative strength of the public relations business and the declining state of newsrooms as thousands of journalists have left the media. It’s easier for a well- funded advocacy group to get its message into coverage than it is for news editors to seek out difficult stories with scarce reporting resources. Consider for example the likely impact on the natural environment of the expansion of wind and solar power generation, all the land that will be required and the resources, particularly rare earths, that will need to be mined. It’s surely a fascinating subject, but it’s difficult.”

‘Who fills the void?’: why player power in sponsorships is dangerous for sport — John Wylie (The SMH): “A time-honoured principle of Australian sport is that no individual is bigger than their sport. It’s a reflection of our national love of sport and our spirit of egalitarianism. The recent phenomenon of sports stars in elite teams rejecting or distancing themselves from national sponsors risks turning this principle on its head. Individual athletes seem to now have the power to decide who or what’s appropriate or inappropriate for a national team or entire sport. The team dynamic that is an integral part of team sport magnifies the risk. One player’s issue can quickly become one for the whole team, motivated by the noble urge to stand shoulder to shoulder, in the solidarity that is the essence of team success.

“While no one doubts the bona fides of the individuals, the validity of their personal concerns, or their genuine desire to advance the best interests of the game they love, it’s a poor development for sport, in multiple ways. Commercial sponsorships, even those focused just on the elite level as in cricket and netball, impact the financial competitiveness of entire sports, down to the grassroots. Grassroots sport made the elite athletes of today, so when they get to the top of their game, they in turn have — or should consider themselves to have — an absolute responsibility to do what they can to advance future investment in those grassroots. It’s the right thing for the tens of thousands of kids starting out who want and deserve the best possible opportunity in the sport. Which means maximising the sport’s revenue base, at all levels, and helping secure the financial future of the game.”

HOLD THE FRONT PAGE

WHAT’S ON TODAY

Online

• Merri-bek City Council’s Cathy Henderson, Wilson Group’s Chris Davies, and Minderoo Foundation’s Shelley Cable will speak about how to engage Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities when creating change, in a webinar held by CEDA.

Eora Nation Country (also known as Sydney)

• Musician Bertie Blackman will chat with book critic Madeleine Gray about the former’s new book, Bohemian Negligence, at Better Read Than Dead bookshop.

• Qantas CEO Alan Joyce will be in conversation with AmCham’s Sara James to discuss the future of the national airline, at the Four Seasons Hotel, Sydney.

Yuggera Country (also known as Brisbane)

• Author Fiona Kelly McGregor will speak about her new novel, Iris, at Avid Reader bookshop.