How Scott Morrison won the election for Labor

Scott Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 vaccinations and his Hawaii vacation during the Black Summer bushfires made him an easy target for opposition attacks and cost him his job, Labor Party election analysis has found. 

Labor’s review of the 2022 federal election found Morrison’s unpopularity was the “most significant” factor behind the party’s win.

It was Labor’s fifth win from opposition in the past 100 years, the significance of which “cannot be overstated”, the review noted, undertaken by former cabinet minister Greg Combet and strategist Lenda Oshalem.

The analysis found several reasons Morrison lost support ahead of the election, including:

• His “failure to accept responsibility” for managing natural disasters, his Hawaii vacation during the bushfires, and saying “I don’t hold a hose, mate” when asked to defend the trip
• His failure to secure and roll out vaccine doses and rapid coronavirus tests during the pandemic, and “politicising” the virus crisis by attacking Labor premiers
• His “failure to understand and empathise with the experience of women”
• The fact he “politicised” Australia’s relationship with China
• His failure to develop a “credible” climate policy.

Even so, the Labor Party managed to scrape a primary vote of only 32.6%, its lowest since 1934. 

Curiously, the same anti-Morrison sentiment that Labor believed cost the ex-prime minister the election also contributed to the low primary turnout for Labor. The “decision by the Labor campaign to focus voter attention on Scott Morrison’s shortcomings as a leader” was listed as “contributing to Labor’s low primary vote”. 

Other factors, according to the party, included declining voter trust in both the Coalition and Labor, driven by mistrust in government, politics and politicians. 

The party also concluded many of its supporters cast tactical ballots in support of high-profile independent candidates. 

One such candidate was Dai Le, the independent who won Fowler. It was Labor’s first loss since the seat was created in 1984. 

The party came close to acknowledging the widely held view that voters there punished Labor for trying to parachute in ex-senator Kristina Keneally, rather than running a local candidate. “Labor’s candidate selection” was listed as one of the reasons for the loss.

But the review also pointed to the prominence of Fairfield City mayor Frank Carbone, “a former Labor power broker in the area”, who backed Le. The review said Carbone’s status in the district was elevated by his tough opposition to the extra-harsh lockdowns imposed on certain western Sydney areas by the Coalition state government. 

“The lockdowns contributed significantly to anti-major party sentiment,” the review said, adding the Liberals also experienced a negative 12.89% swing.

The lesson from Fowler, the review said, was to remember that “no seat is safe”.