A ‘profit-price spiral’ is the biggest driver of inflation and interest rates in Australia

Corporate profits, “not wages”, are the biggest contributor to high inflation in Australia, new analysis has found, suggesting that inflation could have been kept within the Reserve Bank’s target band had businesses not indulged in “excess price hikes” through the pandemic.

Research from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work found that businesses hiked prices by $160 billion as of the September quarter of last year, “over and above” the rises in operating costs they faced through global inflationary pressures. 

The report, based on Australian Bureau of Statistics National Income Accounts data for the September quarter of 2022, suggests that if consumers weren’t left to pay for profits priced in by businesses at the checkout, inflation since the pandemic would have tracked markedly slower. 

The Canberra think tank says that without those profits, inflation would have come in at an annual average of 2.7%, just over half of the 5.2% recorded since late 2019 and well within the RBA’s 2% to 3% target band. 

Priced in corporate profits footed by consumers accounted for 69% of additional inflation beyond the RBA’s target, the analysis found. By comparison, labour costs made up 18%. 

Economist and director of the Centre for Future Work Dr Jim Stanford said the findings would be “aggravating” for Australians doing it tough. 

“We’ve been told a story that workers need to restrict wage growth and accept a permanent reduction in living standards in order to fix inflation. This evidence shows that’s an economic fairytale,” he said. 

Stanford said without the “excess price hikes” through the pandemic, there would be no need for the nine “extreme” consecutive interest rate hikes that have put unsustainable pressure on households and mortgage holders since May last year and exacerbated the cost of living crisis.

The report’s findings come just two days after Coles beat forecasts by posting a net profit increase of 11% in its half-year results, before Woolworths reported a 14% rise in profits off the back of a period of high food price inflation.

Australia’s big four banks stand to fare well, too, after the Commonwealth Bank of Australia mapped out what is set to be a lucrative reporting season for lenders. Australia’s biggest bank posted a record cash profit of $5.1 billion in its half-yearly results last week, thanks to back-to-back interest rate rises. 

Wages data released by the ABS on Wednesday, meanwhile, showed the wage price index increased by 0.8% through the last three months of 2022, taking the rate of annual wages growth to 3.3%, below the RBA’s 3.5% forecast. 

With inflation at 7.8%, the gap between wages and prices has widened to a gulf of 4.5%, resulting in a sharp fall in Australians’ real wages unseen since records began in 1998.

The figures prompted renewed criticism of the central bank, where concerns over a wage-price spiral — in which wages increases drive price increases which in turn lead to further wage increases — were central to its monetary policy outlook earlier this month, forecasting pay increases to run past 4% this year. 

Economists agreed the data showed no evidence of a wage-price spiral. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said wages growth “isn’t the problem” driving inflation, but is instead part of a solution to easing cost-of-living pressures. 

Australia Institute senior economist Matt Grudnoff said it’s clear profits were playing a central role in driving inflation in Australia, and that to blame workers was “gaslighting of the highest order”. 

He said Australia is an “economy of oligopolies”, where a few large firms dominate the market, unchallenged on excessive pricing. 

“Twenty years ago, there were lots of different local hardware stores. Now, there’s just Bunnings and Mitre 10. And that’s just happening in industries all over Australia,” Grudnoff told Crikey.

“And the result of that is there is less competition, and that allows firms to increase prices as we’re seeing right now. The RBA should take an interest in competition, particularly banking, which has been terrible for decades. But the ACCC and the government should take a fresh look as well.”

Grudnoff isn’t alone in issuing warnings on the inflationary threats posed to the Australian economy by major firms yielding market power. In July last year, former ACCC chair Rod Sims issued early advice on the need for sector-specific action to help curb inflation. 

When there is high inflation, dominant firms often realise they can increase prices above any cost rises because consumers will be more accepting of this. They will often do this subtly over time,” he wrote.

“We need to understand the sectors that may be contributing most to inflation and consider sectoral responses rather than rate rises.”