(Image: Gorkie/Private Media)
(Image: Gorkie/Private Media)

Budget reply speeches are one of those Canberra political rituals that no one else cares about. 

Supposedly a chance for the opposition to respond to the treasurer’s budget speech given two nights before, it should really be given by the shadow treasurer. Instead the opposition leader gets the gig. And because the ABC gives the speech a precious half hour of live television coverage, political strategists treasure them. 

But the truth is that voters don’t care. Budget reply speeches rarely make much of an impression. In 2014, Bill Shorten’s attack on Joe Hockey’s horror budget did cut through, restoring Labor morale and setting Shorten up for a surprisingly strong stint as opposition leader. It didn’t help him win government.

Last night’s speech won’t make much difference either. Rusted-on ABC viewers who tuned in would already be unlikely to think much of Peter Dutton. The LNP base in Queensland was probably watching Nine’s NRL show. No one under 40 watches free-to-air at all (not that any of them vote Liberal). 

That’s just as well, because it was an absolutely woeful performance. Dutton is no orator. He’s barely even a public speaker. He looked hesitant. He shuffled his papers. He fluffed his lines. His cadence was off. No wonder Jim Chalmers was smirking from the frontbench.

The content was barely more coherent: a tissue of contradictions and thought bubbles. On the one hand, he argued, the economy is in the toilet, and this is Labor’s fault. On the other hand, the economy is strong because the Coalition was in power for nine years. On the one hand, the budget is making inflation worse; on the other hand, we do need to spend more on aged care. 

There was plenty of talk about working families and the sky-high cost of living, and a crabbed and uncomfortable log cabin story about tough times around the Dutton family table as a kid in Queensland.

There was no mistaking the attack lines, as fumbling as they were. Attacks on migration, on Canberra public servants, against the so-called “truckie tax”, and especially the cost-of-living crisis. Dutton didn’t really nail any of these, stumbling through the talking points.

There was a weird segue about nuclear power. Nuclear submarines will be tying up in the docks of capital cities, he pointed out, and yet Labor won’t even build onshore nuclear power plants! One suspects this is not quite the attack line Dutton thinks it is.

Doctors will be astonished to learn that Dutton was championing his record as health minister; back in 2015 he was notoriously voted the worst health minister in 35 years. Nonetheless, he also committed to restoring mental health cuts to the “Better Access” program that Labor’s Mark Butler has surprisingly implemented. He made special mention of the need for better dementia care. These are real policy commitments that should be taken more seriously by covering media. 

Dutton pivoted on welfare, fudging the issue of raising the base rate of benefits and instead proposing a policy increasing the income threshold for jobseekers looking to work part-time. The irony here was delicious: after a decade of beating up on welfare recipients, suddenly Dutton wants to free up their ability to seek extra work.

This reheat of Howard-era “workfare” is simply doubling down on policies that have already failed. But it gives him a useful talking point when pressed on welfare policy. 

Dutton was more at home when talking about the Coalition’s stage three tax cuts: “With about 400 days before the tax cuts take effect, there’s time enough for Labor to break another promise.” This is a good wedge for the Coalition, playing to its much-withered base. With variable mortgage rates through the roof, middle- to high-income earners are hanging out for those big tax cuts next year. This is why the teal MPs have been so reluctant to oppose them. 

The attacks on migration will hurt. Dutton has some talking points about “bringing 6000 people a week extra in”, which is “more than the population of Adelaide” arriving in the next five years. Lines about migration putting pressure on housing and infrastructure will certainly find receptive audiences in some parts of the electorate.

It’s not a dog whistle — more like a klaxon. This is low politics, just the stuff Dutton excels at.

There is a view within Labor that Dutton is electoral poison in urban Sydney and Melbourne. I’m not sure it’s so cut and dried. Dutton is a much better doorstop and live media performer than in Parliament, and he has some lines now that will cut through on commercial TV news.  

People are struggling in the outer suburbs, in the regions, in over-mortgaged houses all over the suburbs. If Dutton can convince them that their collapsing living standards are Labor’s fault, he has a roadmap for the Coalition out of the wilderness. 

Did you watch Dutton’s budget reply speech? If so, what was your reaction? Let us know by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.