Donald Trump Jr (Image: Sipa USA/Paul Hennessy)

What was claimed

Ninety-three per cent of children who change their gender end up regretting it.

Our verdict

False. Studies into rates of regret among young transgender people put the figure at about 1% or lower.

Donald Trump Jr has used an Australian radio interview to claim 93% of children who go through gender transition later regret it.

The claim is false. Academic studies have found the opposite, with the vast majority of people who transition having no regrets.

Experts told AAP FactCheck the claim is alarmingly wrong, with one estimating the real figure to be no more than 1-2%.

Trump Jr, the eldest son of former US president Donald Trump, made the claim twice during an appearance on KIIS FM’s Kyle & Jackie O show on May 24.

“Look at the cases of recidivism. What is it, like 93% of children regret it later on, and yet the most impressionable, the most easily manipulated in society are convinced that this is the right thing and then you have a 93% recidivism rate,” he said (video mark seven minutes, two seconds).

Associate Professor Ada Cheung, a clinical scientist and head of Trans Health Research at the University of Melbourne, told AAP FactCheck the figure had no basis in fact.

“This is 100% incorrect and I am alarmed that he can say this unchallenged,” Cheung said.

Gender transition, or gender affirmation, is an umbrella term used to describe the steps taken by people who choose to live as their nominated gender, such as changing clothing, pronouns or identification documents.

Some, but not all, change their physical characteristics using hormones or other medical procedures.

Trump Jr also claimed three-year-olds were allowed to “mutilate their bodies to change their gender” (video mark five minutes, one second).

However, gender-affirming surgery is not available for young children in the US or Australia (see here, here, here and here).

AAP FactCheck found several studies that reported rates of regret among people who began the gender transition process as children. None suggested recidivism rates above 6%.

This 2022 study from Princeton University researchers tracked the outcomes of 317 children who socially transitioned their gender between ages three and 12.

Five years after their initial social transition, 298 (94%) were still living as trans girls or trans boys, the study found.

Eleven (3.5%) identified as non-binary after five years, and eight (2.5%) returned to the gender assigned at birth.

Ken Pang, a consultant pediatrician who works with young trans people at the Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne, told AAP FactCheck that Trump Jr’s claim was “patently false”.

Pang estimated, based on his clinical experience, the real figure was no higher than 1-2%.

He said the largest longitudinal study to look at regret in transgender young people was this 2018 research, which reviewed the files of 6793 people who visited the VU University Medical Center gender identity clinic in Amsterdam between 1972 and 2015.

The study included 309 people who first visited the clinic aged 12 to 18 and went on to have genital surgery as adults.

Of the 80% of that group who continued to attend the clinic up to 2015, none expressed regret.

Overall, the study found 0.6% of trans women and 0.3% of trans men who underwent genital surgery experienced regret.

Another Dutch study followed 55 young transgender people through puberty suppression, hormone treatment and gender reassignment surgery. None regretted the transition, the 2014 study found.

Other studies have found rates of regret among transgender people to be about 1% or lower (see here and here).

Pang said it was important to note transgender regret can arise for many reasons, including as a result of social exclusion and stigma following transition.

The 2015 US Transgender Survey found the most common reasons transgender people retransitioned back to their birth gender or as non-binary were parental pressure (36%), transitioning was “too hard” (33%), harassment or discrimination (31%) and trouble getting a job (29%) (page 111).

AAP FactCheck contacted Trump Jr through the Trump Organization for evidence to support his claim, but did not receive a response.

He was appearing on the radio show to promote his upcoming Australian speaking tour.

Donald Trump Sr made a similarly false claim in May 2022, but used a figure of 60%.

The verdict

The claim 93% of children who undergo gender transition later regret it is false.

Studies assessing levels of regret among transgender people mostly put the figure at about 1% or lower.

False — the claim is inaccurate.