‘Fadden is not Aston’: despite robodebt, could the LNP actually increase its margin?

Don’t expect another Aston-like upset when the federal seat of Fadden votes in Saturday’s byelection, political insiders say.

Queenslander Stuart Robert, tainted by his role in robodebt and other scandals, stepped down from Parliament and sparked the poll, which his Liberal National Party expects to win. Labor expects that outcome too, despite its history-making success in wresting the Victorian seat of Aston from the Liberals earlier this year. 

“As if Labor could win Fadden — have you driven around Hope Island?” a Labor source told Crikey. “It’s full of very rich white people. Fadden is not Aston.”

In fact, some insiders are tipping that the swing could result in a greater LNP margin via voters who didn’t like Robert but support the LNP.

Then there’s the apathy factor. Labor volunteers who have knocked doors in the Gold Coast electorate have got the impression that many people weren’t even aware a byelection was on. That was confirmed by the Australian Electoral Commission, which said in a statement on Wednesday morning it was concerned about low voter turnout. 

“The early voting numbers we’re seeing are down by approximately 27% based on the same period in 2022 federal election,” commissioner Tom Rogers said. 

Robert, who held several ministerial portfolios while in Parliament, has stayed off the campaign trail. Privately, some Liberals have said they’re relieved he’ll be gone from politics, especially after the robodebt royal commission report, released last week, strongly criticised his conduct and rejected some of the evidence he gave.

Labor has spent about $24,500 on ads — a lot less than the LNP by Labor’s estimate — many of which seek to remind voters of Robert’s role in the robodebt scandal. One Labor insider said voters approached by door-knockers generally hadn’t brought up robodebt as a concern, and that cost-of-living issues had been more top of mind. 

While Robert has been a no-show, other LNP celebrities have stumped for the party’s candidate, local councillor Cameron Caldwell. Crikey’s spies have spotted Peter Dutton, Karen Andrews, Anne Ruston and even Barnaby Joyce on the Gold Coast in recent weeks. 

Caldwell, who has been a councillor for more than a decade, was sold by Dutton at a campaign stop in Runaway Bay late last month as “somebody who is going to be a champion for their local community, somebody who can deliver on the issues and respond to the needs of the local residents”.

“After two budgets, Labor is making it harder for [the people in Fadden] and harder for their small businesses, harder for their local communities, so it’s an opportunity to send the prime minister a very clear message that you’re not happy with the decisions that they’ve made and the cost-of-living pressures that they’re putting on families and small businesses,” Dutton said.

Caldwell managed to beat several opponents for preselection, despite being dumped from a run for the seat of Broadwater in 2012 after of a media hit job alleged he had visited a swingers’ club with his wife three years before. 

The same story, which Caldwell partly confirmed at the time, was brought up in a new dirt sheet being circulated ahead of the byelection. Crikey is told the dirt file was being sent around by an anonymous email account “with a lot of numbers in the name”. Labor denied it was behind it. 

“These smears are really disappointing but I won’t be distracted by them,” Caldwell told The Courier-Mail last week. “This is something the media sensationalised over a decade ago and was addressed at that time.”

Labor has had some celebrities on the campaign trail too — Anthony Albanese flew up to launch the campaign of Letitia Del Fabbro, and Bill Shorten visited earlier this week. 

Del Fabbro, a nurse and Griffith University lecturer, is being sold by Labor as a local nurse and mother who supports more investment in aged care, healthcare and for working parents.

She’ll have to beat the near 11% margin to take the seat from the LNP. When she ran against Robert in last year’s federal election she managed to shave off only about three percentage points from his margin.

“This is not going to be a close one. The vibes are we won’t win,” a Labor source said.