An AUKUS bill has passed the US Congress — what’s next?

Australia’s top politicians are cheering this morning because a bill related to AUKUS has passed a major legislative hurdle in the United States. So how significant is this development for the so-far opaque deal?

What happened in Washington?  

The US Congress passed a package of legislation that includes bills related to AUKUS, authorising the sale of at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. The bills also help relax export controls, which would allow Australia to access sensitive technology. 

The legislation will now be sent to President Joe Biden for his signature.  

In the words of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who spoke to radio station 2GB: “That means that AUKUS can go ahead, means that Australia will have access to those Virginia-class submarines, which are nuclear-propelled and that will be so important for Australia’s national security.”

How significant is this?

It’s definitely a major milestone for the AUKUS project, and should somewhat alleviate fears that the submarine deal would stall in Congress. 

“The passage through the Senate last night of the relevant legislation is a very significant step forward in the right direction,” Defence Minister Richard Marles said on Thursday afternoon.

“We are very confident that the legislation will ultimately pass the US Congress, which will enable AUKUS to continue to move forward and create the seamless defence industrial base that we are seeking to do across the US, the UK and Australia.” 

Does this mean AUKUS is a done deal? 

No, because the language of the legislation allows for some wiggle room for the US. 

A conference report by the Senate and the House Armed Services Committee accompanying the bill says the president of the day will have to certify that the transfer of the submarines “will not degrade the United States undersea capabilities” and is “consistent with US foreign policy and national security interests”. 

Crucially, the US would also have to make “sufficient submarine production and maintenance investments” to meet its own needs in order to make the sale to Australia. 

Strategic Analysis Australia research director Marcus Hellyer told The Australian the legislation would authorise, rather than compel, a future US president to make the transfer.

“It’s possible a future president may consider a transfer is not in the US’s interest. The president also has to certify the transfer will not degrade the US’s undersea capabilities. That could be difficult,” he said.